The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
10
Typical miss
2.36 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
80%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian JavierStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.6 | 2–6 | 5 | -1.4 | 2% → no |
| Hagen SmithFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 30% of the lineup night after night, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | +3.3 | 26% → no |
| Jacob deGromHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 29% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.1 | 4–11 | 12 | -4.9 | 42% → yes |
| Jared JonesHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 8 | -2.7 | 14% → yes |
| Logan GilbertFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 30% of the lineup night after night, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.8 | 5–12 | 11 | -3.2 | 46% → yes |
| Martín PérezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.9 | <1% → no |
| Max FriedHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.9 | 12% → no |
| Nick MartinezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 2–7 | 3 | +0.8 | 5% → no |
| Ryan FeltnerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 57% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.7 | 12% → no |
| Zack WheelerHe's one of the best strikeout pitchers alive, sitting down 31% of everyone who steps in against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.2 | 4–11 | 9 | -1.8 | 42% → yes |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.