The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
30
Typical miss
1.85 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
83%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-ShawverHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.3 | 1% → no |
| Andrew PainterHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.9 | 12% → no |
| Brandon YoungHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 2 | +1.9 | 6% → no |
| Bryce MillerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.5 | 3–9 | 6 | -0.5 | 19% → no |
| Bubba ChandlerHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 8 | -3.7 | 8% → yes |
| Cal QuantrillHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 12% → no |
| Cam SchlittlerHe's one of the best strikeout pitchers alive, sitting down 31% of everyone who steps in against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.6 | 4–12 | 10 | -2.4 | 42% → yes |
| Casey MizeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 7 | -2.7 | 10% → no |
| Corbin BurnesHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 1–8 | 2 | +2.1 | 12% → no |
| David PetersonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 10% → no |
| Dean KremerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.5 | 12% → no |
| Drew AndersonHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.3 | 8% → no |
| Freddy PeraltaHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%). His recent form is running hot (8/10), and he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| Gabriel HughesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 57% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.6 | 10% → no |
| Hayden WesneskiHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.3 | 10% → no |
| Jack PerkinsHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.5 | 11% → no |
| Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeouts are his calling card: 31% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.6 | 4–12 | 9 | -1.4 | 42% → yes |
| José SorianoStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.7 | 12% → no |
| Landen RouppHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.3 | 9% → no |
| Michael WachaStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 4 | 0.0 | 7% → no |
| Nick LodoloHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.6 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.4 | 3% → no |
| Patrick SandovalHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (26%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 12% → no |
| Quinn MathewsHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 6.0 | 3–9 | 4 | +2.0 | 23% → no |
| Reid DetmersHe strikes out 26% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 55% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 9 | -3.7 | 16% → yes |
| Riley CornelioHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.3 | 8% → no |
| Sandy AlcantaraStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.9 | 1–7 | 1 | +2.9 | 6% → no |
| Sean BurkeHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (26%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 2 | +3.8 | 21% → no |
| Sean ManaeaStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.9 | 12% → no |
| Tanner BibeeStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 1 | +4.0 | 12% → no |
| Tarik SkubalStrikeouts are his calling card: 30% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.9 | 5–12 | 5 | +2.9 | 48% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.