The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
14
Typical miss
1.34 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
100%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris SaleFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 31% of the lineup night after night, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.0 | 4–11 | 11 | -4.0 | 41% → yes |
| Gabriel HughesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.3 | <1% → no |
| Gerrit ColeHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.3 | 16% → no |
| Gordon GraceffoHe pitches to contact, striking out only 15% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.8 | <1% → no |
| Hayden WesneskiHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.5 | 12% → no |
| Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeouts are his calling card: 32% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.7 | 5–12 | 6 | +1.7 | 43% → no |
| Jake IrvinHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.9 | 7% → no |
| Jose CabreraHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.6 | 1–7 | 4 | -0.4 | 5% → no |
| Landen RouppHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.5 | 1% → no |
| Noah CameronHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.7 | 1–7 | 3 | +0.7 | 5% → no |
| Sean ManaeaHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his team is badly outmatched (45% vs 62% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.8 | 12% → no |
| Spencer ArrighettiHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.0 | 1–8 | 4 | 0.0 | 10% → no |
| Trevor RogersStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 7 | -2.8 | 8% → no |
| Yoshinobu YamamotoHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 8 | -2.2 | 22% → yes |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.