The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
30
Typical miss
1.70 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
77%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew PainterStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.2 | 12% → no |
| Blade TidwellHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 1–7 | 4 | -0.2 | 5% → no |
| Brandon YoungHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.3 | 9% → no |
| Cam SchlittlerHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 30% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.2 | 4–9 | 8 | -1.8 | 23% → yes |
| Casey MizeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.0 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.0 | <1% → no |
| Christian ScottA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 6.0 | 4–9 | 2 | +4.0 | 23% → no |
| Cody BradfordHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 14% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.5 | 1–7 | 0 | +3.5 | 6% → no |
| David PetersonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Dean KremerHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| Drew AndersonHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.5 | 11% → no |
| Dylan CeaseStrikeouts are his calling card: 34% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 7.2 | 4–11 | 8 | -0.8 | 42% → yes |
| Emerson HancockHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 1 | +3.0 | 6% → no |
| Eury PérezHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Grant HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.3 | 9% → no |
| Hunter BrownHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 14% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 10 | -5.0 | 12% → yes |
| Jackson KentHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he walks 18% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.8 | 2–6 | 3 | +0.8 | 4% → no |
| Jacob LopezHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (26%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (26%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 6.2 | 4–9 | 6 | +0.2 | 23% → no |
| Jared JonesHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.7 | 8% → no |
| Kohl DrakeHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 3% → no |
| Logan HendersonHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 29% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.7 | 5–12 | 7 | +0.7 | 42% → no |
| Luis CastilloStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 1 | +3.1 | 9% → no |
| Michael WachaStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 10 | -6.5 | 2% → yes |
| Patrick SandovalHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (22%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.7 | 17% → no |
| Quinn MathewsStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.5 | 12% → no |
| Reid DetmersHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his team is badly outmatched (39% vs 55% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 2 | +3.4 | 16% → no |
| Rhett LowderStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.8 | 8% → no |
| Shane McClanahanHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.6 | 11% → no |
| Tanner BibeeStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.4 | 12% → no |
| Tarik SkubalHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.7 | 4–11 | 7 | -0.3 | 36% → no |
| Tomoyuki SuganoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 14% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his team is badly outmatched (39% vs 59% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.8 | <1% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.