We simulate every MLB starter 40,000 times a night and tell you who’s most likely to pile up strikeouts. Then we check our own accuracy in public.
Every afternoon we take the night's confirmed starters and play each start out 40,000 times, pitch by pitch, against the real lineup he'll face. In some versions of tonight he punches out a dozen; in some he's chased in the fourth. Stack forty thousand nights on top of each other and a shape emerges: his true range of outcomes, and the number at the top of every card, his chance of a big strikeout night.
Great stuff doesn't matter if the manager takes the ball in the fifth. So before anything reaches the board, every start walks through a red-flag check: tired arms, quick hooks, soft pitch limits, walk trouble that eats the pitch count, rough weather, game scripts that end nights early. When a flag caps a pitcher's night, it's printed right on his card. A shiny strikeout chance never gets to hide a short leash.
The projection is the product, so we grade it like one. Every morning, each projection is checked against the official box score and posted to the Results page: hits, misses, and everything in between, with no quiet deletions. When we say 40%, you can watch whether it happens about 40% of the time. Advanced also puts the market's posted line right beside our number, so you can see exactly where we disagree. Plenty of sites show you their winners. We show you our whole record, because trust you can check beats trust you're asked for.
His chance at a big night, 8 or more strikeouts, from 40,000 simulated starts. The board itself is ordered by projected strikeouts. Our own number, never a market one.
His last 10 starts. Green means he reached 6 or more strikeouts that night, amber means he came in under. Most recent on the right.
Something caps his night: a pitch limit, a quick manager, an injury leash, so the monster total is blocked, whatever the stuff looks like.
Tonight’s board is already ranked.
See tonight’s free board