How it works

We simulate the player’s game tens of thousands of times and show the chance of every number on the prop. Then we check our own accuracy in public, number by number.

Simulate

We take a player's game and play it out tens of thousands of times: 40,000 for a starting pitcher, a quarterback or a shooter, 20,000 for a receiver or a running back. Each run starts from how much he is likely to be used (pitches, pass attempts, targets, carries, minutes) and then plays out every chance one at a time. In some versions of the game he has a huge day; in some he is done early. Stack those runs on top of each other and a shape appears: his full range of outcomes. From that shape we read the projection and the chance of every number on the prop.

Screen

Talent does not matter if the player is not out there. Before anything reaches the board, each projection is checked for what can cut a game short or change a role: a pitch limit or a quick manager, an injury designation, a teammate ruled out, wind at kickoff, a blowout script. When news changes the picture, the affected players are simulated again. The number keeps updating until it freezes fifteen minutes before the game starts, and that frozen number is the one we grade.

Check & publish

The projection is the product, so we grade it like one. Once the games are final, every projection is checked against the box score and posted to the Results page: hits and misses, with nothing removed afterwards. A projection is a hit when the player met or beat the projected number. When we say 40%, you can watch whether it happens about 40% of the time, and you can pull up any player by name and see our record on him alone. Plenty of sites show you their best nights. We show the whole record, because trust you can check beats trust you are asked for.

What’s on the board

MLB

Strikeouts, every starting pitcher

Published each afternoon and simulated again once the batting order posts, so the nine real hitters are in the number. Graded the next morning. During the game the live tracker re-simulates the rest of the start from where it actually stands: free for the starters closest to their line, every starter in Advanced.

NFL

Passing, receiving and rushing

Passing yards, attempts and completions for quarterbacks; catches and receiving yards for receivers; rushing yards for running backs. Published Wednesday morning, refreshed on injury and inactive news through the week, graded after the games.

NBA

Threes, points, rebounds and assists, every rotation player

Published each game-day morning and refreshed through the afternoon as injury reports and lineups settle. Graded the next morning.

What the numbers mean

Projected

The number we expect from him, in the stat's own unit: strikeouts, yards, catches, threes. It is the number we are graded on.

The ladder

One row for each number on the prop, with his chance of reaching it. This is the part a single line cannot tell you: how likely the big game is, and how likely the short one.

The amber row

When a sportsbook has posted a line, it sits on the ladder in amber with our chance to clear it. Near the posted line, that number is adjusted using our own graded record. The line and our chance to clear it are free.

80% range

The low and high ends we expect the result to land between four times in five. A wide range means an uncertain game, and we would rather show that than hide it.

Flags

When something caps a pitcher's night (a pitch limit, a quick manager, an injury-return leash), his card carries an early-hook flag. A player ruled out before his game is pulled from the board and not graded.

The board is free, and so is the last 30 days of the record.

See the free board