How it works

Every afternoon we take the night's confirmed starters and play each one's start out 40,000 times on a computer. Every pitch, swing, walk, and mound visit runs its course against the real lineup he'll face — forty thousand different versions of tonight. In some he punches out a dozen; in some he's chased in the fourth inning. Stack all of those nights together and you get one plain answer per pitcher: his chance of a big strikeout night, the number at the top of every card.

Great stuff doesn't matter if the manager takes the ball in the fifth. So before anything reaches the board, every start goes through a red-flag check: tired arms, managers with a quick hook, soft pitch limits, walk trouble that burns the pitch count, rough weather, game scripts that end a night early. When a flag caps a pitcher's night, it's printed right on his card as an Early-hook risk flag — a shiny strikeout chance never gets to hide a short leash.

The probability is the product — but when our number clearly leans one way (past 57% either direction), we say so: the card reads Leans Over or Leans Under. Anything closer to a coin flip is a pass, and passes never enter our record. The next morning every projection is checked against the official box score, the called plays are graded win or loss, and the Results page shows all of it — hits, misses, and passes alike, with no quiet deletions. Plenty of pick-sellers show you their winners. We publish everything, because trust is the product.