The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
29
Typical miss
1.61 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
83%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre PallanteHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 2–7 | 1 | +2.8 | 5% → no |
| Andrew SearsHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 1–8 | 4 | +0.3 | 12% → no |
| Blake SnellFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 30% of the lineup night after night, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 7.3 | 4–11 | 7 | +0.3 | 42% → no |
| Chris SaleFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 31% of the lineup night after night, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate). His recent form is running hot (8/10), and he's trusted to pitch deep into the game, so a big night is genuinely live. | 7.5 | 4–12 | 7 | +0.5 | 42% → no |
| Cristian JavierStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 8 | -3.9 | 6% → yes |
| Cristopher SánchezHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.8 | 4–10 | 5 | +1.8 | 39% → no |
| Daniel Lynch IVStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.7 | 1–5 | 0 | +2.7 | <1% → no |
| Erick FeddeStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.0 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.0 | <1% → no |
| Foster GriffinHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (22%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.4 | 3–9 | 3 | +2.4 | 18% → no |
| Jackson KentHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 17% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.6 | 1% → no |
| Jameson TaillonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.2 | 2% → no |
| Janson JunkStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 15% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.0 | 1–6 | 4 | -1.0 | <1% → no |
| Jared JonesHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a lineup full of swing-and-miss (26% strikeout rate against arms like his); he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 9 | -3.7 | 13% → yes |
| Kade MorrisStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 14% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 0 | +3.2 | <1% → no |
| Logan GilbertA strong 28% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.2 | 4–11 | 10 | -2.8 | 42% → yes |
| Matt WilkinsonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.7 | 1–7 | 2 | +1.7 | 8% → no |
| Max FriedHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.7 | 12% → no |
| Merrill KellyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.2 | 7% → no |
| Nick MartinezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 2–7 | 4 | -0.2 | 5% → no |
| Nolan McLeanHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.8 | 14% → no |
| Ranger SuarezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| Rhett LowderStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.3 | 8% → no |
| Ryan FeltnerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%). His recent form is running hot (8/10), and he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 11% → no |
| Ryan JohnsonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.6 | <1% → no |
| Shane BazHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.5 | 12% → no |
| Shane DrohanStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.1 | 12% → no |
| Shota ImanagaHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.1 | 12% → no |
| Walker BuehlerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.3 | 12% → no |
| Zebby MatthewsHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.1 | 13% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.