The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
22
Typical miss
2.29 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
73%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan BelloHe pitches to contact, striking out only 17% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.7 | 2–6 | 7 | -3.3 | 3% → no |
| Chase BurnsHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 5 | +1.1 | 23% → no |
| Derek LawHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–7 | 0 | +3.4 | 6% → no |
| Dylan CeaseStrikeouts are his calling card: 33% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.4 | 4–11 | 6 | +1.4 | 42% → no |
| Emmet SheehanHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.4 | 4–9 | 10 | -3.6 | 26% → yes |
| Eury PérezHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.1 | 12% → no |
| Grant HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.7 | <1% → no |
| Grayson RodriguezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 55% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.3 | 10% → no |
| Jacob LopezHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (17% strikeout rate); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 1 | +3.5 | 12% → no |
| Jake IrvinHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.5 | 12% → no |
| Jesús LuzardoFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 30% of the lineup night after night, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.0 | 4–11 | 12 | -4.9 | 42% → yes |
| Joe RyanHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 12% → no |
| Joey CantilloHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (26% of their trips to the plate end on strikes); he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.3 | 14% → no |
| Jonah TongStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 1–7 | 7 | -3.1 | 7% → no |
| Logan WebbHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 8 | -3.6 | 10% → yes |
| Matthew BoydHe pitches to contact, striking out only 17% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 7 | -2.7 | 8% → no |
| Michael McGreevyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 1–7 | 4 | -0.2 | 4% → no |
| Nick PivettaHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| Noah CameronHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.5 | 3% → no |
| Robert GasserStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.7 | 9% → no |
| Trevor RogersHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.2 | 12% → no |
| Troy MeltonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.1 | 8% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.