The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
28
Typical miss
1.30 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
93%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew AbbottHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.0 | 1–6 | 6 | -3.0 | <1% → no |
| Bailey OberHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.3 | <1% → no |
| Blake SnellHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 6 | -0.2 | 22% → no |
| Bryce MillerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.2 | 12% → no |
| Cal QuantrillHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.5 | 10% → no |
| Carlos RodónHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| Cristian JavierStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 8 | -4.0 | 5% → yes |
| Cristopher SánchezHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.4 | 3–9 | 7 | -1.6 | 18% → no |
| Daniel Lynch IVStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.3 | <1% → no |
| Foster GriffinHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 12% → no |
| Jackson KentHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 1–7 | 5 | -1.1 | 7% → no |
| Jake BennettHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.6 | 10% → no |
| Janson JunkStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.1 | <1% → no |
| José SorianoStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 7 | -1.9 | 13% → no |
| Kyle LeahyHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.3 | 15% → no |
| Lake BacharHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 1 | +3.4 | 10% → no |
| Matt WilkinsonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.8 | 1–8 | 2 | +1.8 | 11% → no |
| Mitch BrattStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 14% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.3 | <1% → no |
| Nick MartinezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.2 | 8% → no |
| Nolan McLeanHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 6 | +0.1 | 23% → no |
| Sean NewcombHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.5 | 11% → no |
| Shane BazHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (17%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.0 | 6% → no |
| Shane DrohanHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.4 | 12% → no |
| Shota ImanagaHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.0 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.1 | 23% → no |
| Tomoyuki SuganoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 15% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 2.6 | 1–5 | 2 | +0.6 | <1% → no |
| Tyler MahleHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.9 | 12% → no |
| Walker BuehlerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.7 | 2–6 | 4 | -0.3 | 3% → no |
| Yusei KikuchiHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.6 | 12% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.