The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
18
Typical miss
1.57 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
94%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blade TidwellHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 11% → no |
| Brandon YoungHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.6 | 2% → no |
| Cal QuantrillHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.7 | <1% → no |
| Hunter BrownHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 6.9 | 4–10 | 7 | -0.1 | 41% → no |
| Jack PerkinsHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.8 | 12% → no |
| Jake BennettHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.4 | 12% → no |
| José SorianoStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (17%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.7 | 1–7 | 2 | +1.7 | 6% → no |
| Kade AndersonHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| Kevin GausmanHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 9 | -3.2 | 22% → yes |
| Lake BacharHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.7 | 12% → no |
| Logan HendersonHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.2 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.8 | 24% → no |
| Luis CastilloStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.4 | 11% → no |
| Michael WachaStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.5 | 12% → no |
| Quinn MathewsStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 12% → no |
| Sandy AlcantaraStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.3 | <1% → no |
| Shane McClanahanHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.5 | 10% → no |
| Tanner BibeeStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 11% → no |
| Tarik SkubalStrikeouts are his calling card: 30% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.4 | 4–12 | 6 | +1.4 | 42% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.