The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
28
Typical miss
1.63 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
93%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew PainterStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.5 | 2% → no |
| Brad LordHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.6 | 9% → no |
| Brandon WilliamsonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he walks 16% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.8 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.2 | 5% → no |
| Bryce MillerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.4 | 11% → no |
| Bubba ChandlerHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.1 | 6% → no |
| Cam SchlittlerHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 30% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup he can hunt (26% strikeout rate against his kind of stuff); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 8.2 | 5–12 | 9 | -0.8 | 53% → yes |
| Casey MizeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.3 | 9% → no |
| Cody BradfordHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 15% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.0 | 1–7 | 3 | +1.0 | 9% → no |
| David PetersonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.2 | 7% → no |
| Davis MartinHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.8 | 2–7 | 3 | +0.8 | 4% → no |
| Dean KremerHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.5 | 12% → no |
| Drew AndersonHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.9 | 6% → no |
| Dylan CeaseStrikeouts are his calling card: 34% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 6.9 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.9 | 41% → no |
| Eury PérezHe strikes out 26% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.8 | 12% → no |
| Grant HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.5 | 1% → no |
| Griffin JaxHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 1 | +4.0 | 12% → no |
| Hayden WesneskiHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.1 | 12% → no |
| Jacob LopezHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.7 | 14% → no |
| Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeouts are his calling card: 30% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.5 | 4–9 | 5 | +1.5 | 31% → no |
| Joey CantilloHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.6 | 2–6 | 6 | -2.4 | 2% → no |
| Justin HagenmanStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (17%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his team is badly outmatched (45% vs 60% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4.0 | 1–8 | 2 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| Landen RouppHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.8 | 12% → no |
| Noah CameronHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.4 | 12% → no |
| Patrick SandovalHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.9 | 12% → no |
| Reid DetmersHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 57% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 6.7 | 4–9 | 8 | -1.3 | 34% → yes |
| Tomoyuki SuganoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 2% → no |
| Trevor RogersHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 11 | -6.0 | 12% → yes |
| Yoshinobu YamamotoA strong 26% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 8 | -1.9 | 23% → yes |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.