The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
28
Typical miss
1.76 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
75%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron NolaHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | +3.2 | 24% → no |
| Andrew AbbottHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 0 | +4.5 | 11% → no |
| Anthony KayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 17% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.3 | <1% → no |
| Anthony MolinaHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 1–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 12% → no |
| Cade CavalliHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 29% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.1 | 4–11 | 9 | -1.9 | 42% → yes |
| Carlos RodónHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 26% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 8 | -2.6 | 15% → yes |
| Chris BassittHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (17%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.7 | <1% → no |
| Chris SaleFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 32% of the lineup night after night, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate). His recent form is running hot (8/10), and he's trusted to pitch deep into the game, so a big night is genuinely live. | 7.7 | 5–12 | 6 | +1.7 | 45% → no |
| Drew RasmussenHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.3 | 17% → no |
| Dustin MayHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.6 | 16% → no |
| Framber ValdezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| George KirbyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.2 | 12% → no |
| Jeffrey SpringsHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 1 | +3.2 | 7% → no |
| MacKenzie GoreHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.1 | 7% → no |
| Mason AdamsHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 12% → no |
| Matthew LiberatoreHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (26%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | +3.3 | 16% → no |
| Max ScherzerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.9 | 12% → no |
| Merrill KellyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.1 | 7% → no |
| Nolan McLeanHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.9 | 4–11 | 5 | +1.9 | 41% → no |
| Parker MessickA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 5 | +0.8 | 22% → no |
| Robbie RayStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.6 | 9% → no |
| Ryan GustoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 2–7 | 3 | +0.8 | 5% → no |
| Seth LugoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.7 | <1% → no |
| Shota ImanagaHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.9 | 4–9 | 4 | +1.9 | 22% → no |
| Sonny GrayHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Taj BradleyHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Wilber DotelHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 1 | +3.3 | 8% → no |
| Yusei KikuchiHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 11% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.