The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
29
Typical miss
1.42 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
97%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad LordStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.7 | 2–6 | 1 | +2.7 | 2% → no |
| Bubba ChandlerHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.5 | 2% → no |
| Cam SchlittlerHe's one of the best strikeout pitchers alive, sitting down 32% of everyone who steps in against him, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.1 | 23% → no |
| Chris SaleA strong 29% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.3 | 4–11 | 6 | +1.3 | 42% → no |
| Connor PrielippHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.9 | 12% → no |
| Eduardo RodriguezStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.6 | 12% → no |
| Emerson HancockHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Freddy PeraltaHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–9 | 6 | -0.7 | 19% → no |
| Hayden WesneskiHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 4 | -0.1 | 7% → no |
| Hunter DobbinsHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 3 | +0.9 | 6% → no |
| J.T. GinnStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.2 | 8% → no |
| Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeouts are his calling card: 36% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 8.1 | 5–12 | 6 | +2.1 | 52% → no |
| Jesús LuzardoA strong 30% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.7 | 4–9 | 9 | -2.3 | 35% → yes |
| Joey CantilloHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.1 | 12% → no |
| Logan WebbHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.1 | 7% → no |
| MacKenzie GoreHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a lineup he can hunt (26% strikeout rate against his kind of stuff); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.5 | 4–12 | 7 | +0.5 | 42% → no |
| Matthew BoydHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.2 | 8% → no |
| Nick LodoloHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.3 | <1% → no |
| Noah CameronHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and his manager is happy to ride him deep when he's rolling, so a big night is genuinely live. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| Randy VásquezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 13% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.7 | 1–5 | 3 | -0.3 | <1% → no |
| Reid DetmersHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 5 | +1.3 | 23% → no |
| Ryan GustoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 2 | +1.9 | 6% → no |
| Sean BurkeA strong 26% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.7 | 3–9 | 4 | +1.7 | 20% → no |
| Sean ManaeaHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.9 | 4–9 | 4 | +1.9 | 22% → no |
| Sonny GrayHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Tanner GordonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.0 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.1 | <1% → no |
| Trevor RogersHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.6 | 11% → no |
| Troy MeltonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.6 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.6 | 4% → no |
| Yoshinobu YamamotoHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 9 | -3.2 | 22% → yes |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.