The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
30
Typical miss
1.69 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
93%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew AbbottHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.1 | 5% → no |
| Anthony KayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.7 | 2–6 | 3 | +0.7 | 3% → no |
| Anthony MolinaHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.1 | 1–8 | 6 | -1.9 | 12% → no |
| Brandon PfaadtHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 10% → no |
| Braxton AshcraftHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.9 | 4–9 | 9 | -3.1 | 21% → yes |
| Cade CavalliHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.9 | 3–9 | 8 | -2.1 | 22% → yes |
| Carlos RodónHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.3 | 12% → no |
| Chris BassittHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.8 | 8% → no |
| Drew RasmussenHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.7 | 17% → no |
| Dustin MayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 11% → no |
| Ethan PeckoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 16% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.6 | 1–7 | 2 | +1.6 | 5% → no |
| Framber ValdezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.0 | 7% → no |
| George KirbyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 5 | +0.8 | 21% → no |
| Jacob deGromHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 29% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 12% → no |
| Javier AssadStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 3 | +0.9 | 5% → no |
| Jeffrey SpringsHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.5 | 2–6 | 6 | -2.5 | 1% → no |
| Martín PérezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.4 | 1% → no |
| Mason AdamsHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.5 | 12% → no |
| Matthew LiberatoreHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.4 | 18% → no |
| Max ScherzerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.4 | 1% → no |
| Parker MessickA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.3 | 4–11 | 12 | -4.7 | 42% → yes |
| Robbie RayHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 1 | +4.0 | 12% → no |
| Ryan GustoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.9 | 7% → no |
| Seth LugoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 2.8 | 1–5 | 1 | +1.8 | <1% → no |
| Sonny GrayHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.6 | 3–9 | 7 | -1.4 | 20% → no |
| Taj BradleyHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | +0.3 | 23% → no |
| Tyler GlasnowStrikeouts are his calling card: 32% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | -1.7 | 24% → yes |
| Yusei KikuchiHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (26%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Zac ThorntonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Zack WheelerHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 9 | -2.7 | 24% → yes |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.