The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
30
Typical miss
2.14 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
73%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-ShawverHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.7 | 1–7 | 3 | +0.7 | 8% → no |
| Aaron NolaHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.0 | 4–9 | 8 | -2.0 | 23% → yes |
| Brandon PfaadtHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 8 | -4.6 | 2% → yes |
| Cade CavalliHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.0 | 4–9 | 11 | -5.0 | 23% → yes |
| Chase BurnsHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.9 | 4–9 | 8 | -2.1 | 21% → yes |
| Chris BassittHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.5 | <1% → no |
| Clay HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 1 | +4.0 | 12% → no |
| Drew RasmussenHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.2 | 14% → no |
| Dustin MayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 1 | +3.4 | 12% → no |
| Ethan PeckoHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.6 | 2–9 | 4 | +1.6 | 23% → no |
| Jackson JobeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.5 | 12% → no |
| Jeffrey SpringsHe pitches to contact, striking out only 15% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.5 | 1–5 | 1 | +1.5 | <1% → no |
| Kumar RockerHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.6 | 12% → no |
| Kyle FreelandStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his team is badly outmatched (40% vs 60% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.6 | 2% → no |
| Logan GilbertA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his team is badly outmatched (47% vs 62% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | +1.2 | 23% → no |
| Matt WilkinsonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 1–8 | 0 | +4.2 | 12% → no |
| Matthew LiberatoreHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 9 | -3.9 | 12% → yes |
| Max ScherzerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (17%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.0 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.0 | <1% → no |
| Michael KingHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.8 | 12% → no |
| Parker MessickHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (26%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 6.8 | 4–9 | 10 | -3.2 | 37% → yes |
| Paul SkenesA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.2 | 14% → no |
| Payton TolleHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 30% of hitters striking out against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.6 | 17% → no |
| Robert StockHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.6 | 3% → no |
| Roki SasakiHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.5 | 12% → no |
| Sandy AlcantaraStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.5 | 3% → no |
| Sean NewcombHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 0 | +4.5 | 11% → no |
| Seth LugoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.6 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.6 | 3% → no |
| Taj BradleyHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.8 | 14% → no |
| Walbert UreñaHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (22%), facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.1 | 12% → no |
| Will WarrenHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup full of swing-and-miss (26% strikeout rate against arms like his), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.