The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
28
Typical miss
1.55 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
93%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-ShawverHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.6 | 3% → no |
| Brady BassoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 2 | +1.9 | 6% → no |
| Bryan WooHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.1 | 12% → no |
| Eduardo RodriguezStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's trusted to pitch deep into the game, so a big night is genuinely live. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.4 | 11% → no |
| Eric LauerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.2 | 8% → no |
| Freddy PeraltaHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 12% → no |
| Gabriel HughesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 2–6 | 4 | -0.2 | 4% → no |
| Gavin WilliamsFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 31% of the lineup night after night, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (16%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 13 | -7.8 | 13% → yes |
| Gerrit ColeHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | +1.2 | 23% → no |
| Grayson RodriguezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 56% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 12% → no |
| Jake IrvinHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 10% → no |
| Jedixson PaezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 17% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.1 | 1% → no |
| Jesús LuzardoA strong 29% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.9 | 12% → no |
| Kyle BradishStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.3 | 8% → no |
| Logan WebbHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 1 | +3.6 | 12% → no |
| MacKenzie GoreHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.0 | 4–11 | 4 | +3.1 | 42% → no |
| Matthew BoydHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.0 | 7% → no |
| Michael McGreevyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.6 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.4 | 3% → no |
| Nick LodoloHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.4 | 12% → no |
| Paul SkenesA strong 26% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.7 | 3–9 | 4 | +1.7 | 20% → no |
| Randy DobnakStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 6 | -2.0 | 7% → no |
| Randy VásquezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 13% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.2 | <1% → no |
| Robert GasserStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.2 | 9% → no |
| Ronel BlancoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.5 | 12% → no |
| Sean BurkeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.3 | 12% → no |
| Sean ManaeaHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones. His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.8 | 12% → no |
| Troy MeltonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 4 | -0.1 | 6% → no |
| Tyler PhillipsStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.6 | <1% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.