The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
20
Typical miss
1.73 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
90%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton AshcraftHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| Cade CavalliHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 26% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's trusted to pitch deep into the game, so a big night is genuinely live. | 5.6 | 3–9 | 7 | -1.4 | 19% → no |
| Carson WhisenhuntHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.2 | 8% → no |
| Chase BurnsHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.4 | 17% → no |
| Drew RasmussenHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.1 | 12% → no |
| Framber ValdezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.8 | 1–7 | 0 | +3.8 | 5% → no |
| George KlassenHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (22%), facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.4 | <1% → no |
| Jeffrey SpringsHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.1 | <1% → no |
| José UrquidyStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.8 | 12% → no |
| Kevin GausmanStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.9 | 7% → no |
| Kumar RockerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 8 | -3.4 | 12% → yes |
| Logan GilbertA strong 28% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 5 | +1.3 | 24% → no |
| Merrill KellyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.6 | 1% → no |
| Parker MessickA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.5 | 4–12 | 4 | +3.5 | 42% → no |
| Ranger SuarezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.4 | 9% → no |
| Robbie RayStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (26% of their trips to the plate end on strikes), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Ryan FeltnerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.9 | <1% → no |
| Sandy AlcantaraStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.6 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.4 | 5% → no |
| Zack WheelerHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.4 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.4 | 27% → no |
| Zebby MatthewsHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | -2.6 | 10% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.