Replay2026-10-08

The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.

Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.

10-262 10-242 10-232 10-191 10-182 10-171 10-153 10-142 10-132 10-124 10-112 10-102 10-082 10-077 10-064 10-053 10-044 10-038 10-012 09-308 09-297 09-2725 09-2623 09-2532

Starts this night

Hit the projection

1 of 2

Starts that met or beat our projection on this slate.

Inside the range

50%

How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.

2 of 2

Pitcher	Projected	80% range	Actual	Miss	Big night
Hagen SmithA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (17% strikeout rate), but he's been a bullpen arm all year, so this start runs short (~55 pitches, the way first starts after a relief stretch go).	3	1–5	0	+3.0	1% → no
Parker MessickHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but we plan on about 72 pitches from him, so his night ends early.	5	3–8	5	0.0	14% → no

Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.