The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
25
Hit the projection
8 of 25
Starts that met or beat our projection on this slate.
Inside the range
88%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre PallanteHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 14% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but his team is badly outmatched (48% vs 63% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4 | 2–7 | 4 | 0.0 | 6% → no |
| Anthony KayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but we plan on about 80 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 2–7 | 4 | 0.0 | 6% → no |
| Brandon WilliamsonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but we plan on about 73 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 3 | 1–5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1% → no |
| DJ HerzStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but we plan on about 70 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 1–6 | 2 | +2.0 | 3% → no |
| Daniel Lynch IVStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but we plan on about 79 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 3 | 1–5 | 2 | +1.0 | 1% → no |
| Dean KremerHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 22% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 87 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 11% → no |
| JR RitchieHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but we plan on about 76 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.0 | 5% → no |
| Jack DreyerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (27% of their trips to the plate end on strikes), but he's been a bullpen arm all year, so this start runs short (~52 pitches, the way first starts after a relief stretch go). | 4 | 1–5 | 2 | +2.0 | 1% → no |
| Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeouts are his calling card: 31% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); we plan on about 84 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7 | 4–10 | 5 | +2.0 | 41% → no |
| Janson JunkStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but we plan on about 78 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.0 | 2% → no |
| Jared JonesHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (26%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 89 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 5 | +1.0 | 22% → no |
| Kyle FreelandStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but his last two starts were held short after full ones, so a workload plan is on and this one runs about 74 pitches. | 4 | 2–6 | 2 | +2.0 | 4% → no |
| Logan GilbertA strong 28% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup he can hunt (26% strikeout rate against his kind of stuff). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and we plan on about 92 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 8 | 6–11 | 8 | 0.0 | 56% → yes |
| MacKenzie GoreHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 82 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–6 | 0 | +4.0 | 3% → no |
| Max ScherzerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 87 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–7 | 7 | -2.0 | 10% → no |
| Michael SorokaHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); we plan on about 83 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 4 | +2.0 | 21% → no |
| Nick MartinezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; we plan on about 85 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–6 | 1 | +3.0 | 3% → no |
| Parker MessickHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5 | 2–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 16% → no |
| Peter LambertHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; we plan on about 89 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 1 | +4.0 | 14% → no |
| Randy VásquezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 15% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but we plan on about 70 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 2 | 1–4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1% → no |
| Sean ManaeaHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); we plan on about 85 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 14% → no |
| Shota ImanagaHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; we plan on about 93 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 3–9 | 3 | +2.0 | 19% → no |
| Tanner HouckHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; we plan on about 89 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–9 | 1 | +4.0 | 21% → no |
| Yusei KikuchiHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 91 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 14% → no |
| Zack WheelerHe's one of the best strikeout pitchers alive, sitting down 30% of everyone who steps in against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7 | 3–10 | 5 | +2.0 | 34% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.