The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
8
Hit the projection
7 of 8
Starts that met or beat our projection on this slate.
Inside the range
75%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew RasmussenHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but we plan on about 77 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 3–8 | 10 | -5.0 | 19% → yes |
| Dylan DoddHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he's been a bullpen arm all year, so this start runs short (~45 pitches, the way first starts after a relief stretch go). | 3 | 1–4 | 4 | -1.0 | 1% → no |
| Gerrit ColeHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate), but we plan on about 73 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.0 | 2% → no |
| Hagen SmithA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (18% strikeout rate), but he's been a bullpen arm all year, so this start runs short (~55 pitches, the way first starts after a relief stretch go). | 4 | 1–6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1% → no |
| Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeouts are his calling card: 33% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his last two starts were held short after full ones, so a workload plan is on and this one runs about 73 pitches. | 6 | 4–9 | 6 | 0.0 | 30% → no |
| Parker MessickA strong 26% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but we plan on about 72 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 6 | 3–9 | 6 | 0.0 | 21% → no |
| Robbie RayStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%), but we plan on about 69 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 2–6 | 1 | +3.0 | 1% → no |
| Tarik SkubalHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but we plan on about 72 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 3–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 18% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.