The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
23
Hit the projection
11 of 23
Starts that met or beat our projection on this slate.
Inside the range
83%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron NolaHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; we plan on about 93 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 0 | +5.0 | 17% → no |
| Bailey OberHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%); we plan on about 83 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.0 | 6% → no |
| Blake SnellA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); we plan on about 86 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 3 | +3.0 | 31% → no |
| Brent SuterStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but we plan on about 70 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 1–6 | 3 | +1.0 | 2% → no |
| Connelly EarlyHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and we plan on about 90 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 6 | 3–9 | 1 | +5.0 | 20% → no |
| Davis MartinHe pitches to contact, striking out only 17% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but we plan on about 73 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 1–6 | 1 | +3.0 | 2% → no |
| Dustin MayHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but we plan on about 78 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 2–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 14% → no |
| Griffin JaxHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but we plan on about 77 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 2–7 | 1 | +4.0 | 10% → no |
| Hayden WesneskiHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); we plan on about 84 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.0 | 3% → no |
| Jack PerkinsHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 85 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 3–9 | 9 | -4.0 | 19% → yes |
| Jonah TongStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4 | 2–7 | 9 | -5.0 | 6% → yes |
| Jose QuintanaHe pitches to contact, striking out only 13% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but we plan on about 77 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 3 | 1–5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1% → no |
| Justin VerlanderHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4 | 1–7 | 6 | -2.0 | 9% → no |
| Kade AndersonHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); we plan on about 83 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 4 | +2.0 | 22% → no |
| Matt WilkinsonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but we plan on about 71 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.0 | 1% → no |
| Michael WachaStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4 | 1–7 | 4 | 0.0 | 6% → no |
| Nathan EovaldiStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his last two starts were held short after full ones, so a workload plan is on and this one runs about 51 pitches. | 2 | 1–3 | 3 | -1.0 | 1% → no |
| Quinn MathewsStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his team is badly outmatched (48% vs 63% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 5 | 2–9 | 7 | -2.0 | 19% → no |
| Rhett LowderStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones. His recent form is running hot (8/10), and we plan on about 88 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.0 | 1% → no |
| Ryan JohnsonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); we plan on about 92 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–7 | 3 | +2.0 | 10% → no |
| Tanner BibeeStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 88 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.0 | 2% → no |
| Trey YesavageHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but we plan on about 79 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 17% → no |
| Walker BuehlerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 82 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–6 | 3 | +1.0 | 2% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.