The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
7
Hit the projection
5 of 7
Starts that met or beat our projection on this slate.
Inside the range
57%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam SchlittlerHe's one of the best strikeout pitchers alive, sitting down 32% of everyone who steps in against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but we plan on about 73 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 6 | 4–9 | 10 | -4.0 | 28% → yes |
| Chris SaleFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 31% of the lineup night after night, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but we plan on about 79 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 6 | 3–9 | 9 | -3.0 | 32% → yes |
| Hagen SmithA strong 30% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he's been a bullpen arm all year, so this start runs short (~55 pitches, the way first starts after a relief stretch go). | 5 | 2–7 | 1 | +4.0 | 10% → no |
| Jesús LuzardoFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 30% of the lineup night after night, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but we plan on about 71 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 6 | 3–8 | 6 | 0.0 | 18% → no |
| Matthew BoydHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but we plan on about 72 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 1–6 | 4 | 0.0 | 2% → no |
| Michael KingHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but we plan on about 76 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 2–6 | 8 | -4.0 | 3% → yes |
| Payton TolleHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but we plan on about 75 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 6 | 3–8 | 4 | +2.0 | 19% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.