The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
8
Hit the projection
6 of 8
Starts that met or beat our projection on this slate.
Inside the range
63%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher SánchezHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but we plan on about 78 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 19% → no |
| Hunter BrownHe's one of the best strikeout pitchers alive, sitting down 31% of everyone who steps in against him, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but we plan on about 76 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 6 | 4–9 | 2 | +4.0 | 32% → no |
| Kevin GausmanHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but we plan on about 78 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 2–7 | 1 | +4.0 | 10% → no |
| Max FriedHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%), but we plan on about 66 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 2–6 | 6 | -2.0 | 2% → no |
| Nick PivettaHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but we plan on about 58 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 2–6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1% → no |
| Sean BurkeHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but we plan on about 71 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 2–7 | 8 | -3.0 | 8% → yes |
| Sonny GrayHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but we plan on about 73 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 5 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 14% → no |
| Tyler MahleHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but we plan on about 75 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 2–7 | 6 | -2.0 | 6% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.