The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
32
Hit the projection
16 of 32
Starts that met or beat our projection on this slate.
Inside the range
84%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec GamboaHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he's been a bullpen arm all year, so this start runs short (~52 pitches, the way first starts after a relief stretch go). | 2 | 1–3 | 1 | +1.0 | 1% → no |
| Andrew AlvarezHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 14% → no |
| Brandon PfaadtHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; we plan on about 90 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–7 | 7 | -3.0 | 6% → no |
| Brandon YoungHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); we plan on about 93 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 17% → no |
| Brayan BelloHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; we plan on about 82 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.0 | 8% → no |
| Brendan BeckStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but we plan on about 70 pitches from him, so his night ends early. | 4 | 1–7 | 8 | -4.0 | 6% → yes |
| Bryce MillerHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup he can hunt (26% strikeout rate against his kind of stuff), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 89 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7 | 3–10 | 7 | 0.0 | 33% → no |
| Bubba ChandlerHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.0 | 6% → no |
| Casey MizeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 84 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–6 | 1 | +3.0 | 3% → no |
| Clay HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); we plan on about 93 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–7 | 3 | +1.0 | 6% → no |
| Cristopher SánchezHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); we plan on about 94 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 10 | -4.0 | 19% → yes |
| David PetersonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); we plan on about 88 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 14% → no |
| Eury PérezHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout, so a big night is genuinely live. | 5 | 3–8 | 8 | -3.0 | 14% → yes |
| Freddy PeraltaHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; we plan on about 88 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 14% → no |
| Gavin WilliamsFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 32% of the lineup night after night, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play. His recent form is running hot (7/10), and we plan on about 93 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 6 | 3–9 | 4 | +2.0 | 24% → no |
| Hunter BrownHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 29% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 6 | 3–9 | 4 | +2.0 | 26% → no |
| Jackson JobeHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); we plan on about 91 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 3–9 | 8 | -3.0 | 19% → yes |
| Jacob LopezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5 | 2–7 | 4 | +1.0 | 10% → no |
| Jacob deGromHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 89 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 5 | +1.0 | 23% → no |
| Joe RyanHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); we plan on about 89 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 8 | -2.0 | 21% → yes |
| José SorianoStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 90 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 3–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 19% → no |
| Michael McGreevyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 14% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); we plan on about 92 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.0 | 6% → no |
| Nick LodoloHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4 | 1–6 | 3 | +1.0 | 3% → no |
| Noah CameronHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 90 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4 | 1–7 | 3 | +1.0 | 5% → no |
| Ray KerrHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%), but he's been a bullpen arm all year, so this start runs short (~55 pitches, the way first starts after a relief stretch go). | 3 | 1–5 | 0 | +3.0 | 1% → no |
| Reid DetmersHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6 | 3–9 | 7 | -1.0 | 32% → no |
| Robert GasserStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; we plan on about 90 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 9 | -4.0 | 14% → yes |
| Sean BurkeHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; we plan on about 89 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 14% → no |
| Tarik SkubalHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); we plan on about 91 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7 | 3–10 | 10 | -3.0 | 35% → yes |
| Tomoyuki SuganoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but his team is badly outmatched (36% vs 52% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.0 | 6% → no |
| Trevor RogersHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); we plan on about 94 pitches from him, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6 | 3–9 | 4 | +2.0 | 29% → no |
| Yunior MarteStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his team is badly outmatched (41% vs 61% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 4 | 1–6 | 4 | 0.0 | 4% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.