Rung by rung

563 graded · every scored rung within 3.6 pts of what we said

When a card said a number was a 30% chance, how often did it happen? Read off the ladder exactly as it was shown.

2+

said 85% · 85% happened563 graded

3+

said 68% · 70% happened563 graded

4+

said 51% · 52% happened563 graded

5+

said 35% · 39% happened563 graded

6+

said 23% · 25% happened563 graded

7+

said 14% · 16% happened563 graded

8+

said 9% · 10% happened563 graded

9+

said 5% · 6% happened563 graded

Results·every projection checked against the box score

Season: 216 of 400 (54%). Hit = met or beat our projection.

Hit the projection

54%

Graded

478

2026 · Week 7

39 of 81 hit the projection

Jaxon Smith-Njigba KC @ SEA — projected 97150ydshit
Drake London SF @ ATL — projected 8466ydsmiss
CeeDee Lamb

DAL @ PHI — projected 74

74ydshit

Malik Nabers NYG @ HOU — projected 74111ydshit

Amon-Ra St. Brown GB @ DET — projected 71153ydshit

Zay Flowers CIN @ BAL — projected 70137ydshit

Chris Olave PIT @ NO — projected 7056ydsmiss

Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ BAL — projected 7062ydsmiss

Tetairoa McMillan TB @ CAR — projected 6540ydsmiss

George Pickens DAL @ PHI — projected 6357ydsmiss

Garrett Wilson MIA @ NYJ — projected 6126ydsmiss

George Kittle SF @ ATL — projected 6188ydshit

DK Metcalf PIT @ NO — projected 5956ydsmiss

Christian Watson GB @ DET — projected 5957ydsmiss

Nico Collins NYG @ HOU — projected 596ydsmiss

Brock Bowers LA @ LV — projected 5873ydshit

Trey McBride DEN @ ARI — projected 57111ydshit

Tee Higgins CIN @ BAL — projected 56148ydshit

Sam LaPorta GB @ DET — projected 5518ydsmiss

Justin Jefferson IND @ MIN — projected 5344ydsmiss

Jameson Williams GB @ DET — projected 5291ydshit

Germie Bernard PIT @ NO — projected 5227ydsmiss

Jalen Coker TB @ CAR — projected 519ydsmiss

Travis Kelce KC @ SEA — projected 5144ydsmiss

Denzel Boston CLE @ TEN — projected 5027ydsmiss

Rome Odunze NE @ CHI — projected 5069ydshit

Matthew Golden GB @ DET — projected 4939ydsmiss

Carnell Tate CLE @ TEN — projected 4869ydshit

Michael Wilson DEN @ ARI — projected 4855ydshit

Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CAR — projected 4827ydsmiss

Dallas Goedert DAL @ PHI — projected 4748ydshit

Luther Burden III NE @ CHI — projected 47130ydshit

A.J. Brown NE @ CHI — projected 4648ydshit

Tucker Kraft GB @ DET — projected 4548ydshit

Keenan Allen IND @ MIN — projected 4331ydsmiss

Xavier Worthy KC @ SEA — projected 4311ydsmiss

Wan'Dale Robinson CLE @ TEN — projected 437ydsmiss

Tre Tucker LA @ LV — projected 42103ydshit

Jaylen Waddle DEN @ ARI — projected 4248ydshit

Isaiah Likely NYG @ HOU — projected 4112ydsmiss

Caleb Douglas MIA @ NYJ — projected 4170ydshit

Kyle Pitts SF @ ATL — projected 3922ydsmiss

Makai Lemon DAL @ PHI — projected 3967ydshit

Devaughn Vele PIT @ NO — projected 3954ydshit

Josh Downs IND @ MIN — projected 3818ydsmiss

Jordan Addison IND @ MIN — projected 3820ydsmiss

Juwan Johnson PIT @ NO — projected 387ydsmiss

Harold Fannin Jr. CLE @ TEN — projected 3891ydshit

Christian McCaffrey SF @ ATL — projected 3861ydshit

KC Concepcion CLE @ TEN — projected 37129ydshit

Dalton Schultz NYG @ HOU — projected 3745ydshit

Cade Otton TB @ CAR — projected 370ydsmiss

Hunter Henry NE @ CHI — projected 3671ydshit

Colston Loveland NE @ CHI — projected 3669ydshit

Courtland Sutton DEN @ ARI — projected 3545ydshit

Malik Washington MIA @ NYJ — projected 3527ydsmiss

Tyler Higbee LA @ LV — projected 3414ydsmiss

Kendrick Bourne DEN @ ARI — projected 349ydsmiss

Ted Hurst III TB @ CAR — projected 330ydsmiss

Ryan Flournoy DAL @ PHI — projected 3170ydshit

Jahmyr Gibbs GB @ DET — projected 3127ydsmiss

Jerry Jeudy CLE @ TEN — projected 3121ydsmiss

Michael Mayer LA @ LV — projected 3132ydshit

Omar Cooper Jr. MIA @ NYJ — projected 31115ydshit

Marvin Harrison Jr. NYG @ HOU — projected 296ydsmiss

T.J. Hockenson IND @ MIN — projected 2935ydshit

Rashid Shaheed KC @ SEA — projected 281ydsmiss

Malachi Fields NYG @ HOU — projected 2683ydshit

Adonai Mitchell MIA @ NYJ — projected 260ydsmiss

Jake Ferguson DAL @ PHI — projected 250ydsmiss

Bijan Robinson SF @ ATL — projected 2559ydshit

Xavier Hutchinson NYG @ HOU — projected 2517ydsmiss

Mason Taylor MIA @ NYJ — projected 2462ydshit

Kyren Williams LA @ LV — projected 2422ydsmiss

Mark Andrews CIN @ BAL — projected 2323ydshit

Kenyon Sadiq MIA @ NYJ — projected 236ydsmiss

Will Mallory IND @ MIN — projected 210ydsmiss

Ja'Kobi Lane CIN @ BAL — projected 2125ydshit

Ashton Jeanty LA @ LV — projected 2161ydshit

Chase Brown CIN @ BAL — projected 2019ydsmiss

Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA @ NYJ — projected 200ydsmiss

6,771 projections graded in public, 563 of them here.

MLB strikeouts 2,034 NFL passing yards 201 NFL rushing yards 166 NFL receiving yards 478 NFL pass attempts 169 NFL completions 169 NBA threes 753 NBA points 907 NBA rebounds 735 NBA assists 596