Rung by rung

563 graded · every scored rung within 3.6 pts of what we said

When a card said a number was a 30% chance, how often did it happen? Read off the ladder exactly as it was shown.

2+

said 85% · 85% happened563 graded

3+

said 68% · 70% happened563 graded

4+

said 51% · 52% happened563 graded

5+

said 35% · 39% happened563 graded

6+

said 23% · 25% happened563 graded

7+

said 14% · 16% happened563 graded

8+

said 9% · 10% happened563 graded

9+

said 5% · 6% happened563 graded

Results·every projection checked against the box score

Season: 201 of 321 (63%). Hit = met or beat our projection.

Hit the projection

63%

Graded

563

2026 · Week 7

49 of 81 hit the projection

Trey McBride DEN @ ARI — projected 710rechit
Jaxon Smith-Njigba KC @ SEA — projected 79rechit
Amon-Ra St. Brown

GB @ DET — projected 7

9rechit

CeeDee Lamb DAL @ PHI — projected 65recmiss

Malik Nabers NYG @ HOU — projected 67rechit

Drake London SF @ ATL — projected 67rechit

Chris Olave PIT @ NO — projected 66rechit

Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ BAL — projected 65recmiss

George Kittle SF @ ATL — projected 68rechit

George Pickens DAL @ PHI — projected 54recmiss

Zay Flowers CIN @ BAL — projected 58rechit

Dallas Goedert DAL @ PHI — projected 55rechit

Sam LaPorta GB @ DET — projected 51recmiss

Tetairoa McMillan TB @ CAR — projected 54recmiss

DK Metcalf PIT @ NO — projected 52recmiss

Brock Bowers LA @ LV — projected 56rechit

Garrett Wilson MIA @ NYJ — projected 52recmiss

Travis Kelce KC @ SEA — projected 54recmiss

Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CAR — projected 54recmiss

Germie Bernard PIT @ NO — projected 53recmiss

Christian McCaffrey SF @ ATL — projected 56rechit

Kyle Pitts SF @ ATL — projected 45rechit

Makai Lemon DAL @ PHI — projected 47rechit

Isaiah Likely NYG @ HOU — projected 42recmiss

Josh Downs IND @ MIN — projected 42recmiss

Keenan Allen IND @ MIN — projected 43recmiss

Xavier Worthy KC @ SEA — projected 43recmiss

Jahmyr Gibbs GB @ DET — projected 45rechit

Wan'Dale Robinson CLE @ TEN — projected 44rechit

Jameson Williams GB @ DET — projected 45rechit

KC Concepcion CLE @ TEN — projected 48rechit

Jalen Coker TB @ CAR — projected 41recmiss

Carnell Tate CLE @ TEN — projected 45rechit

Tucker Kraft GB @ DET — projected 44rechit

Devaughn Vele PIT @ NO — projected 45rechit

Kyren Williams LA @ LV — projected 42recmiss

Christian Watson GB @ DET — projected 45rechit

Juwan Johnson PIT @ NO — projected 41recmiss

Nico Collins NYG @ HOU — projected 42recmiss

Justin Jefferson IND @ MIN — projected 44rechit

Michael Wilson DEN @ ARI — projected 44rechit

Harold Fannin Jr. CLE @ TEN — projected 46rechit

Jaylen Waddle DEN @ ARI — projected 44rechit

Denzel Boston CLE @ TEN — projected 43recmiss

Matthew Golden GB @ DET — projected 46rechit

Dalton Schultz NYG @ HOU — projected 45rechit

Cade Otton TB @ CAR — projected 40recmiss

Tee Higgins CIN @ BAL — projected 46rechit

Colston Loveland NE @ CHI — projected 47rechit

A.J. Brown NE @ CHI — projected 43recmiss

Rome Odunze NE @ CHI — projected 44rechit

Luther Burden III NE @ CHI — projected 44rechit

Jake Ferguson DAL @ PHI — projected 30recmiss

Bijan Robinson SF @ ATL — projected 35rechit

Mark Andrews CIN @ BAL — projected 33rechit

Ryan Flournoy DAL @ PHI — projected 34rechit

Jerry Jeudy CLE @ TEN — projected 34rechit

Tyler Higbee LA @ LV — projected 32recmiss

Jordan Addison IND @ MIN — projected 32recmiss

Michael Mayer LA @ LV — projected 33rechit

Kenyon Sadiq MIA @ NYJ — projected 31recmiss

Courtland Sutton DEN @ ARI — projected 33rechit

Rashid Shaheed KC @ SEA — projected 32recmiss

Mason Taylor MIA @ NYJ — projected 35rechit

Chase Brown CIN @ BAL — projected 34rechit

Ted Hurst III TB @ CAR — projected 30recmiss

Tre Tucker LA @ LV — projected 35rechit

T.J. Hockenson IND @ MIN — projected 34rechit

Kendrick Bourne DEN @ ARI — projected 33rechit

Ashton Jeanty LA @ LV — projected 38rechit

Caleb Douglas MIA @ NYJ — projected 32recmiss

Malik Washington MIA @ NYJ — projected 33rechit

Hunter Henry NE @ CHI — projected 37rechit

Malachi Fields NYG @ HOU — projected 24rechit

Will Mallory IND @ MIN — projected 20recmiss

Ja'Kobi Lane CIN @ BAL — projected 23rechit

Adonai Mitchell MIA @ NYJ — projected 20recmiss

Xavier Hutchinson NYG @ HOU — projected 23rechit

Marvin Harrison Jr. NYG @ HOU — projected 21recmiss

Omar Cooper Jr. MIA @ NYJ — projected 25rechit

Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA @ NYJ — projected 20recmiss

DeVonta Smith DAL @ PHI — did not play

Puka Nacua LA @ LV — did not play

Dontayvion Wicks DAL @ PHI — did not play

Pierre Strong GB @ DET — did not play

Reggie Virgil DEN @ ARI — did not play

Tyler Warren IND @ MIN — did not play

Rashee Rice KC @ SEA — did not play

Emeka Egbuka TB @ CAR — did not play

Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ ATL — did not play

Mike Evans SF @ ATL — did not play

Albert Okwuegbunam LA @ LV — did not play

Tyreek Hill MIA @ NYJ — did not play

Shane Zylstra GB @ DET — did not play

6,771 projections graded in public, 563 of them here.

MLB strikeouts 2,034 NFL passing yards 201 NFL rushing yards 166 NFL receiving yards 478 NFL pass attempts 169 NFL completions 169 NBA threes 753 NBA points 907 NBA rebounds 735 NBA assists 596