The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
27
Typical miss
1.56 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
93%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew AlvarezHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 6 | -2.0 | 5% → no |
| Braxton AshcraftHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.6 | 12% → no |
| Chase BurnsHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.9 | 23% → no |
| Chris BassittHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 1% → no |
| Drew RasmussenHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.8 | 15% → no |
| Dustin MayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.7 | 12% → no |
| Ethan PeckoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 18% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 5% → no |
| Framber ValdezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.0 | 7% → no |
| Janson JunkStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 14% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.6 | 1–5 | 2 | +0.6 | <1% → no |
| Jeffrey SpringsHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (26% of their trips to the plate end on strikes), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.9 | 5% → no |
| Kumar RockerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 12% → no |
| Logan GilbertHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.5 | 12% → no |
| Mason AdamsHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 12% → no |
| Matthew LiberatoreHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (26% of their trips to the plate end on strikes); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.9 | 4–9 | 9 | -3.1 | 21% → yes |
| Max ScherzerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.7 | 2–6 | 10 | -6.3 | 3% → yes |
| Parker MessickHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.9 | 3–9 | 5 | +0.9 | 22% → no |
| Ranger SuarezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.6 | 12% → no |
| Robbie RayStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.6 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.4 | 2% → no |
| Seth LugoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.3 | <1% → no |
| Shota ImanagaHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 26% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.3 | 23% → no |
| Tyler GlasnowHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 29% of hitters striking out against him, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Tyler MahleHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 9 | -4.0 | 12% → yes |
| Will WarrenHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 7 | -2.0 | 12% → no |
| Yusei KikuchiHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.7 | 9% → no |
| Zac ThorntonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.1 | 6% → no |
| Zack WheelerHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.1 | 4–11 | 6 | +1.1 | 42% → no |
| Zebby MatthewsHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.4 | 18% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.