The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
29
Typical miss
1.55 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
90%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-ShawverHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.4 | 5% → no |
| Bryan WooHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Bubba ChandlerHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.0 | 5% → no |
| Connor PrielippHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.3 | 14% → no |
| Eduardo RodriguezStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.8 | 1–7 | 9 | -5.2 | 6% → yes |
| Elmer RodríguezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 15% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.8 | <1% → no |
| Freddy PeraltaHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.2 | 9% → no |
| Grayson RodriguezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 4 | 0.0 | 7% → no |
| J.T. GinnStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.2 | 7% → no |
| Jesús LuzardoA strong 29% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.7 | 5–12 | 9 | -1.3 | 43% → yes |
| Joey CantilloHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (26% of their trips to the plate end on strikes), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 1 | +5.3 | 23% → no |
| Kyle BradishStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.8 | 2–7 | 4 | -0.2 | 4% → no |
| Logan WebbHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.1 | 12% → no |
| MacKenzie GoreHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.8 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.8 | 40% → no |
| Matt WaldronHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 1–8 | 1 | +2.9 | 10% → no |
| Matthew BoydHe pitches to contact, striking out only 16% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.9 | <1% → no |
| Michael McGreevyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.3 | 8% → no |
| Nick LodoloHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (26% of their trips to the plate end on strikes). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.4 | 12% → no |
| Peter LambertStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Randy DobnakStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones. His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.9 | <1% → no |
| Randy VásquezHe pitches to contact, striking out only 14% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.4 | 1% → no |
| Robert StockHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.2 | 9% → no |
| Roki SasakiHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| Ryan GustoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.5 | 2% → no |
| Sean BurkeHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.1 | 12% → no |
| Sonny GrayHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.1 | 14% → no |
| Spencer MilesHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 1 | +3.2 | 8% → no |
| Tanner GordonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.6 | <1% → no |
| Troy MeltonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 2% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.