The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
30
Typical miss
1.43 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
87%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew AbbottHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.5 | 2% → no |
| Bailey OberHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.1 | 6% → no |
| Blake SnellHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.1 | 2–8 | 10 | -4.9 | 13% → yes |
| Cade CavalliHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.0 | 3–9 | 8 | -2.0 | 23% → yes |
| Cal QuantrillHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 8 | -3.8 | 6% → yes |
| Cristopher SánchezHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (26%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.3 | 4–11 | 8 | -0.7 | 42% → yes |
| Daniel Lynch IVStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.8 | 1–5 | 3 | -0.2 | <1% → no |
| Erick FeddeStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.9 | 1–5 | 4 | -1.1 | <1% → no |
| Foster GriffinHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 12% → no |
| Jack PerkinsHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 26% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.7 | 4–9 | 5 | +0.7 | 19% → no |
| José SorianoStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.6 | 12% → no |
| Kade AndersonHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.3 | 6% → no |
| Keider MonteroStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 14% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 2.9 | 1–6 | 3 | -0.1 | <1% → no |
| Kevin GausmanHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | -1.0 | 23% → no |
| Kyle LeahyHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.6 | 12% → no |
| Lake BacharHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.0 | 5% → no |
| Martín PérezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.6 | 10% → no |
| Matt WilkinsonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.8 | 5% → no |
| Max FriedHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.4 | 9% → no |
| Merrill KellyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.6 | <1% → no |
| Mitch BrattStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 15% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.3 | <1% → no |
| Nick MartinezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.6 | 1% → no |
| Nolan McLeanHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 26% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.9 | 3–9 | 4 | +1.9 | 23% → no |
| Ryan JohnsonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 56% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.4 | <1% → no |
| Sandy AlcantaraStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.7 | 1–7 | 3 | +0.7 | 4% → no |
| Shane BazHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.9 | 12% → no |
| Shane DrohanHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.7 | 13% → no |
| Walker BuehlerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (17% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.2 | <1% → no |
| Yunior MarteHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 1–8 | 3 | +1.6 | 12% → no |
| Zach AgnosHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.6 | 2–6 | 1 | +2.6 | 3% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.