The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
30
Typical miss
1.82 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
83%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew PainterStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.7 | 2–6 | 8 | -4.3 | 3% → yes |
| Blade TidwellHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.7 | <1% → no |
| Brandon YoungHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (17% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.3 | <1% → no |
| Casey MizeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 0 | +4.2 | 9% → no |
| Christian ScottHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.5 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.5 | 18% → no |
| Cody BradfordHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.7 | 12% → no |
| David PetersonHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 8 | -3.7 | 8% → yes |
| Dean KremerHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.5 | 12% → no |
| Drew AndersonHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.8 | 2–6 | 4 | -0.2 | 3% → no |
| Dylan CeaseStrikeouts are his calling card: 34% of the hitters he sees go down on strikes, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 8.2 | 5–12 | 8 | +0.2 | 54% → yes |
| Eury PérezHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 26% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.1 | 23% → no |
| Gabriel HughesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 2.8 | 1–5 | 2 | +0.8 | <1% → no |
| Hunter BrownHe strikes out 26% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he walks 14% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.7 | 3–9 | 4 | +1.7 | 21% → no |
| Jacob LopezHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (22%), facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 9 | -4.3 | 12% → yes |
| Jake IrvinHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.3 | 8% → no |
| Jared JonesHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.6 | 9% → no |
| Kade AndersonHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–9 | 5 | 0.0 | 16% → no |
| Logan HendersonHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 30% of hitters striking out against him, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.2 | 4–11 | 4 | +3.2 | 42% → no |
| Luis CastilloStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.9 | 12% → no |
| Martín PérezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.9 | 2–6 | 2 | +1.9 | 4% → no |
| Michael SorokaA strong 26% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.3 | 14% → no |
| Michael WachaStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.7 | <1% → no |
| Patrick SandovalHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Quinn MathewsHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 15% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.9 | 12% → no |
| Rhett LowderStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.3 | <1% → no |
| Ryan JohnsonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.8 | 2–6 | 3 | +0.8 | 3% → no |
| Ryan WeathersHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| Shane McClanahanHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (26% of their trips to the plate end on strikes), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Tanner BibeeStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 6 | -2.1 | 6% → no |
| Tarik SkubalHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.5 | 4–12 | 11 | -3.5 | 42% → yes |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.