The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
29
Typical miss
1.94 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
79%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron NolaHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 26% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.4 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.6 | 27% → no |
| Andrew AlvarezHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.2 | 12% → no |
| Anthony KayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 11% → no |
| Brady SingerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.7 | 9% → no |
| Brandon PfaadtHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.3 | 9% → no |
| Bryce ElderHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.5 | 3% → no |
| Casey LeguminaHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.3 | 9% → no |
| Chris BassittHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.9 | 1–5 | 5 | -2.1 | <1% → no |
| Clay HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 2.8 | 1–6 | 5 | -2.2 | <1% → no |
| Ethan PeckoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he walks 17% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.0 | 1–8 | 1 | +3.0 | 11% → no |
| Gage JumpHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 9 | -3.8 | 15% → yes |
| Gavin WilliamsFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 34% of the lineup night after night, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%). His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's trusted to pitch deep into the game, so a big night is genuinely live. | 8.7 | 5–13 | 3 | +5.7 | 59% → no |
| George KirbyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 9 | -4.8 | 9% → yes |
| Jackson JobeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (17%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.9 | <1% → no |
| Jacob deGromHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%); he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 2 | +4.1 | 23% → no |
| Kyle HarrisonHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Mason AdamsStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 1–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 12% → no |
| Matthew LiberatoreHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (24%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (26%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.9 | 12% → no |
| Max ScherzerHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.7 | <1% → no |
| Michael KingHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (22%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.2 | 12% → no |
| Paul SkenesA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.4 | 17% → no |
| Payton TolleHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.9 | 23% → no |
| Seth LugoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 15% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones. His recent form is running hot (7/10), and he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets, so a big night is genuinely live. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.9 | <1% → no |
| Taj BradleyHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 11 | -6.0 | 12% → yes |
| Tyler GlasnowHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (22%); he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.9 | 23% → no |
| Tyler PhillipsStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.6 | 2–6 | 7 | -3.4 | 3% → no |
| Walbert UreñaHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 3 | +0.9 | 5% → no |
| Will WarrenHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.5 | 11% → no |
| Zac ThorntonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his team is badly outmatched (45% vs 62% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 3.7 | 2–7 | 4 | -0.3 | 5% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.