The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
28
Typical miss
1.76 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
86%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre PallanteHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 15% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.6 | 1% → no |
| Blade TidwellHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.6 | 12% → no |
| Brady BassoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.0 | 1–6 | 4 | -1.0 | <1% → no |
| Cody BradfordHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 13% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.5 | 5% → no |
| Cristopher SánchezHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | +3.3 | 27% → no |
| Daniel Lynch IVStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 15% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 2.4 | 1–5 | 3 | -0.6 | <1% → no |
| Davis MartinHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 1 | +3.4 | 10% → no |
| Foster GriffinHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (27% of their trips to the plate end on strikes); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.9 | 3–9 | 4 | +1.9 | 22% → no |
| Griffin JaxHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| Hunter BrownHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he walks 13% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.6 | 18% → no |
| Jackson KentHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%); he walks 17% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.4 | 11% → no |
| Jake BennettHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.4 | 9% → no |
| Janson JunkStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.1 | 1–6 | 0 | +3.1 | <1% → no |
| Kade AndersonHe pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 12% → no |
| Keider MonteroStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (19% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 81 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.2 | <1% → no |
| Kevin GausmanHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.5 | 3–9 | 6 | -0.4 | 19% → no |
| Logan HendersonHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.4 | 4–12 | 6 | +1.4 | 42% → no |
| Reynaldo LópezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.6 | <1% → no |
| Rhett LowderStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.1 | 7% → no |
| Robert StockHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 10% → no |
| Ryan JohnsonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 55% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.6 | <1% → no |
| Shane BazHe pitches to contact, striking out only 21% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.7 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.3 | 4% → no |
| Tomoyuki SuganoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 14% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 57% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.1 | 5% → no |
| Walker BuehlerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.3 | 8% → no |
| Will WarrenHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.8 | 2–8 | 8 | -3.2 | 12% → yes |
| Yoshinobu YamamotoA strong 28% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.0 | 4–11 | 10 | -3.0 | 42% → yes |
| Zac GallenHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 14% of hitters, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 2.5 | 1–5 | 1 | +1.5 | <1% → no |
| Zebby MatthewsHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.