The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
22
Typical miss
1.75 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
82%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron NolaHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 12% → no |
| Anthony KayHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.7 | 8% → no |
| Brady SingerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.7 | 9% → no |
| Brandon PfaadtHe pitches to contact, striking out only 18% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 1 | +2.5 | 3% → no |
| Cade PovichHe pitches to contact, striking out only 17% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.7 | 1–7 | 4 | -0.3 | 5% → no |
| Clay HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (22% strikeout rate), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.1 | 2–7 | 8 | -3.9 | 8% → yes |
| Elmer RodríguezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5 | -0.7 | 8% → no |
| Gage JumpHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 2 | +3.8 | 21% → no |
| George KirbyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.4 | 11% → no |
| Ian SeymourHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.1 | 4–11 | 10 | -2.9 | 42% → yes |
| Jackson JobeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.7 | <1% → no |
| Jacob deGromHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 84 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 8 | -2.2 | 21% → yes |
| Kyle HarrisonA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.9 | 12% → no |
| Michael KingHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.8 | 14% → no |
| Payton TolleHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.7 | 15% → no |
| Peter LambertHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.9 | 4–9 | 6 | -0.1 | 22% → no |
| Robert StockHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (17%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.8 | <1% → no |
| Ryan GustoHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 18% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (20%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.7 | <1% → no |
| Taj BradleyHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 26% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 9 | -4.0 | 12% → yes |
| Tanner GordonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.6 | 2–6 | 3 | +0.6 | 3% → no |
| Walbert UreñaHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 21% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%), but his team is badly outmatched (38% vs 57% win rate): a blowout could knock him out early. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 8 | -3.0 | 12% → yes |
| Will DionHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 26% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 1 | +4.0 | 12% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.