The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
29
Typical miss
2.00 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
83%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron NolaHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.3 | 4–11 | 5 | +2.3 | 42% → no |
| Andrew AlvarezStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.0 | 2–7 | 5 | -1.0 | 5% → no |
| Bailey OberHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (24%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.7 | 2–6 | 6 | -2.3 | 4% → no |
| Brady SingerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (22%); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| Bryan WooHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 27% of hitters striking out against him, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.7 | 4–9 | 9 | -2.3 | 34% → yes |
| Cesar PerdomoHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.4 | 12% → no |
| Christian ScottHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (25%), facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (23%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 7 | -1.2 | 21% → no |
| Clay HolmesStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 2 | +2.5 | 12% → no |
| Eduardo RodriguezStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 20% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| Gage JumpHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.8 | 3–9 | 7 | -1.2 | 21% → no |
| Gavin WilliamsFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 34% of the lineup night after night, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.5 | 5–12 | 11 | -3.5 | 42% → yes |
| Gerrit ColeHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 86 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.9 | 12% → no |
| Ian SeymourHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 28% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (23%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.7 | 4–9 | 2 | +4.7 | 36% → no |
| Jackson JobeHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 82 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.3 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.7 | <1% → no |
| Justin WrobleskiHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%); he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 6 | +0.1 | 23% → no |
| Kyle BradishStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 22% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 94 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.6 | 12% → no |
| Kyle HarrisonA strong 26% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (26%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.5 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.6 | 29% → no |
| Kyle LeahyHe pitches to contact, striking out only 22% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 6 | -2.5 | 1% → no |
| MacKenzie GoreHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 25% of the hitters he sees, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 5.1 | 3–8 | 1 | +4.1 | 12% → no |
| Michael KingHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.2 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.2 | 12% → no |
| Paul SkenesA strong 27% of the hitters he sees end up walking back to the dugout, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as anyone (25%); he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.1 | 4–9 | 2 | +4.1 | 23% → no |
| Payton TolleHe brings real swing-and-miss stuff, with 28% of hitters striking out against him, facing a lineup that hands out strikeouts (27% of their trips to the plate end on strikes); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 7.4 | 4–11 | 12 | -4.6 | 42% → yes |
| Peter LambertHe strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.9 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.1 | 12% → no |
| Randy DobnakStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.4 | 2% → no |
| Spencer ArrighettiHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.4 | 3% → no |
| Tanner GordonStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 18% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (24%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 2% → no |
| Tyler MahleHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 22% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (19%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.4 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.4 | 12% → no |
| Tyler PhillipsHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (21% strikeout rate), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.3 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.4 | 9% → no |
| Walbert UreñaHe collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (22%), facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%); he walks 12% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 12% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.