The projection as it was published, not as we would write it today.
Every number below was frozen before the first pitch and has not been touched since. Nothing is recomputed with today’s model, so a night that went badly still reads badly. Pick any night and check us.
Starts this night
16
Typical miss
1.83 K
Average gap between projection and actual on this slate.
Inside the range
81%
How many landed inside their 80% range. One night is a small sample.
| Pitcher | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew AlvarezStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%), but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.3 | 12% → no |
| Brady SingerStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 4.6 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.6 | 12% → no |
| Gage JumpHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 23% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 4.2 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.2 | 8% → no |
| Gavin WilliamsFew starters miss bats like he does, punching out 32% of the lineup night after night, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's trusted to pitch deep into the game. | 7.3 | 4–11 | 11 | -3.6 | 42% → yes |
| George KirbyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 17% of hitters, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (24%), but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 3 | +1.7 | 12% → no |
| Gerrit ColeHis strikeout rate is honest but ordinary: 24% of the hitters he sees, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 6.2 | 4–9 | 8 | -1.8 | 23% → yes |
| Grayson RodriguezHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to put away (21%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.7 | 2–8 | 6 | -1.3 | 12% → no |
| Ian SeymourHe misses a lot of bats, striking out 29% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 88 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.4 | 3–8 | 8 | -2.6 | 18% → yes |
| Jacob deGromHe strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.6 | 3–9 | 10 | -4.4 | 20% → yes |
| Kyle BradishHe strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (25%), but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| Landen RouppHe pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (19%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.9 | 2–7 | 2 | +1.9 | 4% → no |
| Michael McGreevyHe'd rather get quick outs than chase strikeouts, whiffing just 16% of hitters, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 92 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 4.5 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.5 | 12% → no |
| Peter LambertHe strikes out 24% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing an ordinary lineup, strikeout-wise (23%); he's usually done around 90 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.8 | 4–9 | 3 | +2.8 | 20% → no |
| Randy DobnakStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a tough lineup to put away (22%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 91 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.6 | 2% → no |
| Robert GasserStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 21% of hitters go down swinging, facing a pesky lineup that puts everything in play (20% strikeout rate); he's usually done around 89 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets. | 5.0 | 2–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 12% → no |
| Shane BieberStrikeouts aren't really his game; just 17% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (18%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he walks 11% of hitters, and every walk burns pitches without buying a strikeout. | 3.2 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.8 | <1% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside its 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.