ranked by the chance of a big night (8+ Ks) — green = strong chance. Tap any pitcher for the full story.
⚠ 5 pitchers grade red-hot on tonight's form meter — far more than usual (typically 3 or fewer). Until that settles, hot form isn't boosting anyone's ranking tonight.
CLE · RHP vs CIN · 7:10 PM ET
34%
Strong7.1K
9K
He owns one of the best strikeout rates in baseball (31% of hitters), facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's typically done around 94 pitches, which limits his chances. Expect a night around 7.1 strikeouts.
2 missing inputs
ATL · LHP vs NYM · 7:10 PM ET
22%
Fair6.2K
9K
He owns one of the best strikeout rates in baseball (31% of hitters), facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as most (22%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~86 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 6.2.
2 missing inputs
HOU · RHP vs LAA · 9:38 PM ET
15%
Fair5.5K
8K
He strikes out 23% of hitters — about league average, facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually allowed to pitch deep into the game. Expect a night around 5.5 strikeouts.
2 missing inputs
LAA · LHP vs HOU · 9:38 PM ET
15%
Fair5.5K
8K
He strikes out a strong 29% of the hitters he faces, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and puts the ball in play, and his recent form is hot (7/10) — he's typically done around 93 pitches, which limits his chances, so a big night is genuinely live.
2 missing inputs
NYY · RHP vs CWS · 7:40 PM ET
15%
Fair5.3K
8K
His 26% strikeout rate sits right around league average, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as most (23%); he's typically done around 94 pitches, which limits his chances. Expect a night around 5.3 strikeouts.
2 missing inputs
MIN · RHP vs KC · 7:40 PM ET
15%
Fair5.2K
8K
His 26% strikeout rate sits right around league average, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and puts the ball in play; he's usually allowed to pitch deep into the game. Expect a night around 5.2 strikeouts.
2 missing inputs
DET · RHP vs BAL · 6:40 PM ET
15%
Fair5.1K
8K
He punches out a typical 24% of the hitters he faces, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as most (24%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~88 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 5.1.
2 missing inputs
NYM · RHP vs ATL · 7:10 PM ET
15%
Thin4.8K
8K
He misses plenty of bats — 27% of hitters strike out against him, facing a tough lineup to strike out (21%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but he hasn't been allowed past ~83 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.8.
2 missing inputs
MIL · RHP vs SF · 9:45 PM ET
13%
Thin4.7K
8K
A strong 28% of the hitters he faces go down on strikes, facing a tough lineup to strike out (20%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.7.
3 missing inputs
MIA · RHP vs PHI · 6:40 PM ET
13%
Thin4.6K
8K
He only strikes out 20% of hitters, pitching more to contact, facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (24%), and his recent form is hot (7/10) — he's usually allowed to pitch deep into the game, so a big night is genuinely live.
2 missing inputs
PHI · RHP vs MIA · 6:40 PM ET
13%
Thin4.6K
8K
He strikes out 24% of hitters — about league average, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and puts the ball in play; he's typically done around 90 pitches, which limits his chances. Expect a night around 4.6 strikeouts.
2 missing inputs
SD · RHP vs COL · 9:40 PM ET
13%
Thin4.6K
8K
He punches out a typical 22% of the hitters he faces, facing a tough lineup to strike out (22%) that keeps putting the ball in play; he's typically done around 93 pitches, which limits his chances. Expect a night around 4.6 strikeouts.
2 missing inputs
ATH · LHP vs BOS · 9:40 PM ET
13%
Thin4.5K
8K
His 25% strikeout rate sits right around league average, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and puts the ball in play — but he hasn't been allowed past ~85 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.5.
2 missing inputs
WSH · RHP vs TOR · 6:45 PM ET
13%
Thin4.5K
8K
He strikes out a strong 27% of the hitters he faces, facing a tough lineup to strike out (19%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but he hasn't been allowed past ~88 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.5.
2 missing inputs
CIN · RHP vs CLE · 1:40 PM ET
15%
Fair5.4K
8K
He strikes out a strong 29% of the hitters he faces, facing a tough lineup to strike out (20%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but his recent form is shaky (2/10), so lean toward an ordinary night; he's usually allowed to pitch deep into the game.
1 missing input
BAL · RHP vs DET · 6:40 PM ET
13%
Thin4.6K
8K
His 23% strikeout rate sits right around league average, facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (23%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~87 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.6.
3 missing inputs
TB · RHP vs TEX · 6:40 PM ET
7%
Thin4.4K
7K
He strikes out 24% of hitters — about league average, facing a tough lineup to strike out (22%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.4.
3 missing inputs
SF · RHP vs MIL · 9:45 PM ET
4%
Thin4.4K
7K
His 22% strikeout rate sits right around league average, facing a tough lineup to strike out (21%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but his team is badly outmatched (42% vs 62% win rate) — a blowout could knock him out early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.4.
2 missing inputs
KC · RHP vs MIN · 7:40 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.7K
6K
He pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to strike out (21%) that keeps putting the ball in play; he's typically done around 89 pitches, which limits his chances. Expect a night around 3.7 strikeouts.
2 missing inputs
COL · RHP vs SD · 9:40 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.6K
6K
He only strikes out 17% of hitters, pitching more to contact, facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (22%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~88 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 3.6.
2 missing inputs
TOR · RHP vs WSH · 6:45 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.5K
6K
He only strikes out 19% of hitters, pitching more to contact, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and puts the ball in play; he's typically done around 89 pitches, which limits his chances. Expect a night around 3.5 strikeouts.
3 missing inputs
CHC · RHP vs STL · 7:45 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.5K
6K
He pitches to contact, striking out only 19% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to strike out (21%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but he hasn't been allowed past ~86 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 3.5.
2 missing inputs
CLE · RHP vs CIN · 1:40 PM ET
<1%
Thin4.3K
7K
Strikeouts aren't his game — just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (25%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~87 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.3.
1 missing input
CWS · LHP vs NYY · 7:40 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.8K
6K
Strikeouts aren't his game — just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as most (25%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 3.8.
2 missing inputs
PIT · RHP vs AZ · 6:40 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.6K
6K
He pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of hitters, facing a tough lineup to strike out (20%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but he hasn't been allowed past ~88 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 3.6.
2 missing inputs
AZ · RHP vs PIT · 6:40 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.5K
5K
Strikeouts aren't his game — just 16% of hitters go down swinging, facing a lineup that strikes out about as often as most (24%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 3.5.
3 missing inputs
BOS · LHP vs ATH · 9:40 PM ET
<1%
Thin4.0K
6K
Strikeouts aren't his game — just 19% of hitters go down swinging, facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (25%) — but he hasn't been allowed past ~82 pitches lately, so his night ends early, so the monster strikeout night is off the table; expect something near 4.0.
3 missing inputs
SEA · RHP vs LAD · 10:10 PM ET
<1%
Thin3.8K
6K
He only strikes out 19% of hitters, pitching more to contact, facing a tough lineup to strike out (21%) that keeps putting the ball in play — but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so lean toward an ordinary night; he's typically done around 90 pitches, which limits his chances.
2 missing inputs
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