how often the sim has him finish above his line — a fact, not a pick
“His 26% strikeout rate sits right around league average, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and puts the ball in play; he's usually allowed to pitch deep into the game. Expect a night around 5.6 strikeouts.”
K distribution
40,000 sims
all simsbest-stuff nightsshare of sims
strikeouts
Chance he clears each strikeout line
4+ Ks79%
5+ Ks63%
6+ Ks52%
7+ Ks33%
8+ Ks19%
9+ Ks9%
10+ Ks6%
11+ Ks3%
12+ Ks<1%
Risk assessment — how this read can go wrong
52elevated
Tonight's three scenarios
His best stuff shows up
25%→ 7 K
An ordinary night
60%→ 6 K
A rough night (early exit)
15%→ 4 K
Floor (P10)
3 K
Bust chance
15%
Swing
±2.4 K
Shape
1.0×down/up
Chance of a dud15% of simulated nights end with 3 strikeouts or fewer13/25
Early-exit chance15% of simulated nights go sideways and he's out of the game early
Tonight's form
5/9
fastball +0.5 mph faster than his season norm — a great sign2/2
finishing fewer hitters off with two strikes than usual (-3.6%)0/2
fully rested (5 days)1/1
this lineup chases about as often as most (33%)1/2
typical manager patience1/2
How much to trust this read
68/100
481 batters faced this season — a solid track record25/25
current pitch-quality ratings (Stuff+/CSW) on file15/15
lineup not posted yet — using the team's overall profile8/20
plenty of data on this lineup (2780 plate appearances)10/10
umpire unposted — not announced yet0/10
What went into this projection
Strikes out
26%
They strike out
22%
Walks
10%
Pitch limit
98
Pitches per strikeout
4.94
Park & weather
×0.95
Manager style
typical
On a pitch cap
no
Engine
v7.3-port-1.0
Sims
40,000
Missing inputs
confirmed lineup — team-aggregate K% used · umpire assignment/tendency — neutral (no free feed)
Input
Reading
Source
His manager
How fast he pulls starters
neutral
What that means tonight
typical manager patience
Anything blocking a big night?
nothing in the way ✓
Last 5 starts
Date
K
Pitches
IP
BF
FB velo
2-strike whiff
2026-07-23
5
109
7.0
25
97.5
14%
2026-07-18
6
94
5.0
25
96.6
25%
2026-07-12
6
99
7.0
28
97.7
17%
2026-07-07
10
101
7.0
24
97.6
33%
▸Key — what do all these terms mean?
Big night (8+ K)
The chance this pitcher strikes out 8 or more — a genuinely dominant start. This is what the board is ranked by, tilted a little by the form meter. green = strong chance tonightyellow = borderlinered = low chance
✕ next to a name
Early-hook risk: something caps his night — a pitch limit, a quick manager, or an injury-return leash — so the monster strikeout night is blocked. Tap the row for the reason.
Projection
Our single best guess for tonight's strikeouts: the average of all 40,000 simulated starts, adjusted by how accurate our numbers have actually been this season.
Ceiling (top 10%)
His 90th-percentile night: one start in ten reaches this many strikeouts or more. The max-out number.
Tonight's form (0–10)
How good his stuff looks coming into tonight, from observable signs only: last-start velocity vs his norm, recent two-strike whiffs, rest days, how often the other lineup chases, and how long his manager lets him work. 5 is neutral; 7+ is rare (a couple per night across the league) and means the sim leans toward his best-stuff version. Hover or tap the bar for the ingredients.
17/20
Night-to-night swinghis nights typically land within ±2.4 strikeouts of 67/15
Blind spots in the data2 named missing inputs; lineup not confirmed11/20
Does history agree?history pushed back hard on this one — the odds of clearing 5.5 strikeouts moved 5 points after the reality check4/10
Hard limits tonightno hard limits on his night0/10
⚠ the lineup isn't posted yet — check back once it is; that's the biggest thing that could change this read
today's weather and ballpark are factored in
5/5
a wide range of outcomes (±2.4 K) — anything can happen5/15
workload-anchored: mean 65% / max 35% of last-5 pitch counts + 3, clamped [84, 104] · self-review trim -6
11m ago
Pitcher k pctseason overall (no lineup sides)
26%
MLB Stats API season + vl/vr splits
11m ago
Regime chasethis lineup chases about as often as most (33%)
100%
regime component
never
Regime leashtypical manager patience
1
regime component
never
Regime restfully rested (5 days)
1
regime component
never
Regime velocityfastball +0.5 mph faster than his season norm — a great sign
2.0 mph
regime component
never
Regime whiff trendfinishing fewer hitters off with two strikes than usual (-3.6%)
0
regime component
never
Stuff plus
109.24
FanGraphs Stuff+
11m ago
Tto decayK/BF 0.255 early vs 0.310 late (BF 365/116); late bucket is survivorship-biased, hence the heavy shrink
0.01
MLB pitch-count splits (1-75 vs 76+), shrunk toward league 0.04
11m ago
Weather
88.4°F, wind 6.8 mph
Open-Meteo forecast at first pitch
10m ago
2026-07-01
11
97
5.0
21
98.1
32%
Tail
The shape of his upside. low ceiling = little room above his typical night; normal upside = typical spread; big upside = real blow-up-the-box-score potential; second gear = when his best stuff shows up, the night jumps a whole tier.
Confidence (0–100)
How much the model trusts its own read — it drops when inputs are missing, the lineup isn't posted yet, or the pitcher's sample is thin. Under ~55 means treat the read loosely.
Big night blocked
Something concrete rules out the monster night no matter how good his stuff is — a pitch limit, a manager who pulls starters early, too many walks, or a lopsided matchup. The reason is on the badge.
Chance to clear the line
Once a line is posted, we show the plain chance he finishes above it — “6.5 line · 71% chance to clear it” means 71 of 100 simulated starts had 7 or more Ks. It's a fact from the simulation, not a pick: we never tell you to bet the over or the under.You decide.
Strikeout ladder
The chance he reaches each level, level by level — 4+ Ks, 5+, 6+, all the way up. Tap it open on any pitcher to see the whole staircase.
Lineup badge
lineup ✓ = the official card is posted and the sim used the actual nine hitters. no lineup= using the team's overall strikeout profile until the card drops (usually 2–4 hours before first pitch).
Arsenal matchup
Whether his best swing-and-miss pitch attacks a lineup that already whiffs a lot. A real out-pitch versus chase-happy bats nudges the projection up; a flat arsenal against contact hitters nudges it down.
Recent form
A gentle shade on the rate when his velocity or two-strike whiffs are trending away from his season norm — so an arm whose stuff is fading projects lower before the averages catch up.
Calibrated
The probabilities are re-mapped through a backtest of thousands of past starts, so “40%” means what it actually did historically — not just what the raw sim guessed. See the Results page for the curve.
Risk index (0–100)
How the night can go wrong, scored from six named ingredients: the chance of a dud (3 K or fewer), the early-exit chance, night-to-night swing, blind spots in the data, whether history agrees with the model, and any hard limits tonight. Low / moderate / elevated / high. High big-night % with low risk is the read you want; high % with high risk is a trap.
Scenarios
The three ways tonight actually plays out — his best stuff shows up, an ordinary night, or a rough early exit — each with its probability and typical strikeout total.
Correlated
You have lines on both starters in the same game. One game script — a blowout, rain, a bullpen day — can sink both at once. Not a prohibition, just exposure you should see.
Missing inputs
Data the model wanted but couldn't get tonight (named exactly). The sim used neutral defaults for those pieces and confidence took a haircut — nothing is ever made up.