6:40 PM ET · loanDepot park · 2026-07-28calibrated
Big night (8+ K)
13%
low chance
Projection
4.9K
our best guess — sim average, accuracy-adjusted
Typical night
5K
the middle outcome
Good night
6K
top 25% of sims
Ceiling
8K
top 10% — the max-out
Upside room
+3.0fat
ceiling minus typical
His line
5.5
Chance to clear it
36%
how often the sim has him finish above his line — a fact, not a pick
“He only strikes out 20% of hitters, pitching more to contact, facing a middle-of-the-road lineup for strikeouts (24%), and his recent form is hot (7/10) — he's usually allowed to pitch deep into the game, so a big night is genuinely live.”
K distribution
40,000 sims
all simsbest-stuff nightsshare of sims
strikeouts
Chance he clears each strikeout line
4+ Ks72%
5+ Ks53%
6+ Ks36%
7+ Ks24%
8+ Ks13%
9+ Ks7%
10+ Ks2%
11+ Ks<1%
12+ Ks<1%
Risk assessment — how this read can go wrong
62elevated
Tonight's three scenarios
His best stuff shows up
28%→ 6 K
An ordinary night
57%→ 5 K
A rough night (early exit)
15%→ 3 K
Floor (P10)
2 K
Bust chance
22%
Swing
±2.4 K
Shape
0.8×down/up
Chance of a dud22% of simulated nights end with 3 strikeouts or fewer20/25
Early-exit chance15% of simulated nights go sideways and he's out of the game early
Tonight's form
7/9
fastball right at his season norm (-0.3 mph)1/2
getting more swings-and-misses with two strikes than usual (+6.8%)2/2
fully rested (6 days)1/1
this lineup chases pitches outside the zone a lot (36% — among the most chase-happy in MLB)2/2
typical manager patience1/2
How much to trust this read
68/100
598 batters faced this season — a solid track record25/25
current pitch-quality ratings (Stuff+/CSW) on file15/15
lineup not posted yet — using the team's overall profile8/20
plenty of data on this lineup (2696 plate appearances)10/10
umpire unposted — not announced yet0/10
What went into this projection
Strikes out
20%
They strike out
24%
Walks
6%
Pitch limit
98
Pitches per strikeout
4.82
Park & weather
×0.97
Manager style
typical
On a pitch cap
no
Engine
v7.3-port-1.0
Sims
40,000
Missing inputs
confirmed lineup — team-aggregate K% used · umpire assignment/tendency — neutral (no free feed)
Input
Reading
Source
His manager
How fast he pulls starters
neutral
What that means tonight
typical manager patience
Anything blocking a big night?
nothing in the way ✓
Last 5 starts
Date
K
Pitches
IP
BF
FB velo
2-strike whiff
2026-07-22
3
108
7.0
30
97.0
14%
2026-07-17
7
104
6.0
25
98.2
41%
2026-07-10
8
99
7.0
26
96.8
25%
2026-07-04
8
100
8.0
31
96.8
36%
▸Key — what do all these terms mean?
Big night (8+ K)
The chance this pitcher strikes out 8 or more — a genuinely dominant start. This is what the board is ranked by, tilted a little by the form meter. green = strong chance tonightyellow = borderlinered = low chance
✕ next to a name
Early-hook risk: something caps his night — a pitch limit, a quick manager, or an injury-return leash — so the monster strikeout night is blocked. Tap the row for the reason.
Projection
Our single best guess for tonight's strikeouts: the average of all 40,000 simulated starts, adjusted by how accurate our numbers have actually been this season.
Ceiling (top 10%)
His 90th-percentile night: one start in ten reaches this many strikeouts or more. The max-out number.
Tonight's form (0–10)
How good his stuff looks coming into tonight, from observable signs only: last-start velocity vs his norm, recent two-strike whiffs, rest days, how often the other lineup chases, and how long his manager lets him work. 5 is neutral; 7+ is rare (a couple per night across the league) and means the sim leans toward his best-stuff version. Hover or tap the bar for the ingredients.
17/20
Night-to-night swinghis nights typically land within ±2.4 strikeouts of 56/15
Blind spots in the data2 named missing inputs; lineup not confirmed11/20
Does history agree?history pushed back hard on this one — the odds of clearing 4.5 strikeouts moved 10 points after the reality check8/10
Hard limits tonightno hard limits on his night0/10
⚠ about 1 night in 5 like this ends with 3 strikeouts or fewer
⚠ the lineup isn't posted yet — check back once it is; that's the biggest thing that could change this read
today's weather and ballpark are factored in5/5
a wide range of outcomes (±2.4 K) — anything can happen5/15
workload-anchored: mean 65% / max 35% of last-5 pitch counts + 3, clamped [84, 104] · self-review trim -6
9m ago
Pitcher k blendlast5 0.209 / season 0.188 / 2025 0.191
0.19
M1 blend: last-5 25% / season 50% / prior-year 25%
never
Pitcher k pctseason overall (no lineup sides)
19%
MLB Stats API season + vl/vr splits
9m ago
Regime chasethis lineup chases pitches outside the zone a lot (36% — among the most chase-happy in MLB)
2
regime component
never
Regime leashtypical manager patience
1
regime component
never
Regime restfully rested (6 days)
1
regime component
never
Regime velocityfastball right at his season norm (-0.3 mph)
1.0 mph
regime component
never
Regime whiff trendgetting more swings-and-misses with two strikes than usual (+6.8%)
2
regime component
never
Stuff plus
100.49
FanGraphs Stuff+
9m ago
Tto decayK/BF 0.185 early vs 0.181 late (BF 449/149); late bucket is survivorship-biased, hence the heavy shrink
0.04
MLB pitch-count splits (1-75 vs 76+), shrunk toward league 0.04
9m ago
Weather
85.4°F (roof may close)
Open-Meteo; retractable roof — applied neutrally
9m ago
2026-06-29
3
96
5.2
27
97.3
21%
Tail
The shape of his upside. low ceiling = little room above his typical night; normal upside = typical spread; big upside = real blow-up-the-box-score potential; second gear = when his best stuff shows up, the night jumps a whole tier.
Confidence (0–100)
How much the model trusts its own read — it drops when inputs are missing, the lineup isn't posted yet, or the pitcher's sample is thin. Under ~55 means treat the read loosely.
Big night blocked
Something concrete rules out the monster night no matter how good his stuff is — a pitch limit, a manager who pulls starters early, too many walks, or a lopsided matchup. The reason is on the badge.
Chance to clear the line
Once a line is posted, we show the plain chance he finishes above it — “6.5 line · 71% chance to clear it” means 71 of 100 simulated starts had 7 or more Ks. It's a fact from the simulation, not a pick: we never tell you to bet the over or the under.You decide.
Strikeout ladder
The chance he reaches each level, level by level — 4+ Ks, 5+, 6+, all the way up. Tap it open on any pitcher to see the whole staircase.
Lineup badge
lineup ✓ = the official card is posted and the sim used the actual nine hitters. no lineup= using the team's overall strikeout profile until the card drops (usually 2–4 hours before first pitch).
Arsenal matchup
Whether his best swing-and-miss pitch attacks a lineup that already whiffs a lot. A real out-pitch versus chase-happy bats nudges the projection up; a flat arsenal against contact hitters nudges it down.
Recent form
A gentle shade on the rate when his velocity or two-strike whiffs are trending away from his season norm — so an arm whose stuff is fading projects lower before the averages catch up.
Calibrated
The probabilities are re-mapped through a backtest of thousands of past starts, so “40%” means what it actually did historically — not just what the raw sim guessed. See the Results page for the curve.
Risk index (0–100)
How the night can go wrong, scored from six named ingredients: the chance of a dud (3 K or fewer), the early-exit chance, night-to-night swing, blind spots in the data, whether history agrees with the model, and any hard limits tonight. Low / moderate / elevated / high. High big-night % with low risk is the read you want; high % with high risk is a trap.
Scenarios
The three ways tonight actually plays out — his best stuff shows up, an ordinary night, or a rough early exit — each with its probability and typical strikeout total.
Correlated
You have lines on both starters in the same game. One game script — a blowout, rain, a bullpen day — can sink both at once. Not a prohibition, just exposure you should see.
Missing inputs
Data the model wanted but couldn't get tonight (named exactly). The sim used neutral defaults for those pieces and confidence took a haircut — nothing is ever made up.