1.98 K
+0.64
40%
70%
Every start we published on Paul Skenes, checked against the box score. Misses included, nothing dropped.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 6.1 | 4–9 | 2 | +4.1 | 23% → no |
| 2026-09-01 | 5.7 | 3–9 | 4 | +1.7 | 20% → no |
| 2026-08-25 | 5.4 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.4 | 17% → no |
| 2026-08-19 | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | +0.2 | 14% → no |
| 2026-08-11 | 7.3 | 4–11 | 4 | +3.3 | 42% → no |
| 2026-08-05 | 7.4 | 4–11 | 6 | +1.4 | 42% → no |
| 2026-07-31 | 7.7 | 5–12 | 7 | +0.7 | 46% → no |
| 2026-07-25 | 5.3 | 3–8 | 11 | -5.7 | 15% → yes |
| 2026-07-19 | 7.0 | 4–10 | 8 | -1.0 | 39% → yes |
| 2026-07-12 | 7.2 | 4–11 | 7 | +0.2 | 44% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.