Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 3.6 | 1–7 | 2 | +1.6 | 5% → no |
| 2026-08-30 | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 5% → no |
| 2026-08-25 | 4.0 | 1–8 | 1 | +3.0 | 11% → no |
| 2026-08-19 | 5.6 | 2–9 | 4 | +1.6 | 23% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.