Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 4.4 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.6 | 12% → no |
| 2026-09-03 | 5.0 | 2–8 | 3 | +2.0 | 12% → no |
| 2026-08-29 | 3.3 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.3 | 6% → no |
| 2026-08-22 | 5.0 | 2–9 | 5 | 0.0 | 16% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.