2.45 K
-2.18
30%
60%
Every start we published on Payton Tolle, checked against the box score. Misses included, nothing dropped.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 7.4 | 4–11 | 12 | -4.6 | 42% → yes |
| 2026-08-31 | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.7 | 15% → no |
| 2026-08-25 | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.9 | 23% → no |
| 2026-08-19 | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | -0.6 | 17% → no |
| 2026-08-13 | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.3 | 16% → no |
| 2026-08-07 | 5.8 | 4–9 | 14 | -8.1 | 21% → yes |
| 2026-08-01 | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.7 | 14% → no |
| 2026-07-27 | 4.6 | 3–8 | 7 | -2.4 | 13% → no |
| 2026-07-20 | 6.5 | 4–10 | 9 | -2.5 | 32% → yes |
| 2026-07-12 | 5.6 | 3–9 | 7 | -1.4 | 21% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.