Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 3.3 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.3 | <1% → no |
| 2026-08-11 | 3.5 | 1–6 | 0 | +3.5 | 2% → no |
| 2026-08-06 | 5.1 | 3–8 | 7 | -1.9 | 12% → no |
| 2026-07-30 | 4.3 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.7 | 8% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.