Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 3.7 | 1–7 | 2 | +1.7 | 8% → no |
| 2026-08-29 | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.8 | 5% → no |
| 2026-08-23 | 3.8 | 1–8 | 2 | +1.8 | 11% → no |
| 2026-08-19 | 4.2 | 1–8 | 0 | +4.2 | 12% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.