Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | +2.3 | 14% → no |
| 2026-08-16 | 4.6 | 2–8 | 5 | -0.4 | 12% → no |
| 2026-08-10 | 4.6 | 2–8 | 4 | +0.6 | 12% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.