Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | -1.7 | 24% → yes |
| 2026-08-30 | 5.0 | 3–8 | 6 | -1.0 | 12% → no |
| 2026-08-25 | 6.1 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.9 | 23% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.