Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | 5.4 | 3–8 | 8 | -2.6 | 15% → yes |
| 2026-09-05 | 4.7 | 2–8 | 7 | -2.3 | 12% → no |
| 2026-08-23 | 5.0 | 2–8 | 2 | +3.0 | 12% → no |
| 2026-08-18 | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | +2.1 | 23% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.