1.73 K
-0.20
33%
67%
Every start we published on Aaron Nola, checked against the box score. Misses included, nothing dropped.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | +3.2 | 24% → no |
| 2026-09-06 | 7.3 | 4–11 | 5 | +2.3 | 42% → no |
| 2026-08-31 | 5.0 | 2–8 | 4 | +1.0 | 12% → no |
| 2026-08-25 | 6.4 | 4–9 | 7 | -0.6 | 27% → no |
| 2026-08-19 | 6.0 | 4–9 | 8 | -2.0 | 23% → yes |
| 2026-08-13 | 5.0 | 3–8 | 9 | -4.0 | 12% → yes |
| 2026-08-08 | 4.7 | 2–8 | 8 | -3.3 | 12% → yes |
| 2026-08-03 | 5.0 | 3–8 | 5 | 0.0 | 12% → no |
| 2026-07-28 | 5.1 | 3–8 | 4 | +1.1 | 13% → no |
| 2026-07-22 | 5.7 | 3–9 | 4 | +1.7 | 21% → no |
| 2026-07-16 | 5.7 | 3–9 | 6 | -0.3 | 22% → no |
| 2026-07-10 | 6.6 | 3–10 | 8 | -1.4 | 34% → yes |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.