1.34 K
-0.34
42%
75%
Every start we published on Merrill Kelly, checked against the box score. Misses included, nothing dropped.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | 4.1 | 2–7 | 3 | +1.1 | 7% → no |
| 2026-09-04 | 4.2 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.2 | 7% → no |
| 2026-08-29 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 7 | -3.6 | <1% → no |
| 2026-08-24 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.6 | 1% → no |
| 2026-08-18 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 2 | +1.4 | 1% → no |
| 2026-08-12 | 4.2 | 2–7 | 2 | +2.2 | 7% → no |
| 2026-08-07 | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4 | -0.5 | 2% → no |
| 2026-08-02 | 3.6 | 1–6 | 5 | -1.4 | 2% → no |
| 2026-07-27 | 4.0 | 2–6 | 6 | -2.0 | <1% → no |
| 2026-07-22 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.4 | 3% → no |
| 2026-07-17 | 3.8 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.8 | 4% → no |
| 2026-07-09 | 4.1 | 1–7 | 6 | -1.9 | 7% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.