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Tim Mayza
PHI · LHP vs ATL · 7:15 PM ET
thin read⚠ Early-hook risk
4.5
projected K
11%8+ K
Projected 4.5 K: 11% chance of 8+. He strikes out 22% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but he hasn't been allowed past ~80 pitches lately, so his night ends early.
Chance to reach each total
644+
465+
276+
187+
118+
59+
<110+
Why this number
Each line is an input the model actually used, and which way it pushed. Nothing here is added after the fact.
- His strikeout rate pushes the number up. his strikeout rate this season. League average is 22.1% of batters faced.24.1%
- The lineup he faces pulls the number down. this lineup's strikeout rate this season. Above 22.1% means this lineup strikes out more than most.21.6%
- How deep he pitches pulls the number down. his pitch counts in recent starts80 pitches
- His manager's hook roughly neutral. how quickly this manager pulls his startersneutral
- Recent form pulls the number down. his recent velocity and two-strike whiffs against his own season norm
The full story is part of MAXOUT Advanced.
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