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Ranger Suarez
BOS · LHP vs KC · 4:10 PM ET
thin read
o4.5
line · proj 4.4
45%over
Projected 4.4 K: 45% to go over his 4.5 line. He pitches to contact, striking out only 20% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (21%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 93 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets.
Chance to reach each total
604+
455+
276+
177+
118+
59+
<110+
Why this number
Each line is an input the model actually used, and which way it pushed. Nothing here is added after the fact.
- His strikeout rate pushes the number up. his strikeout rate this season. League average is 22.1% of batters faced.23.2%
- The lineup he faces pulls the number down. this lineup's strikeout rate this season. Above 22.1% means this lineup strikes out more than most.20.5%
- How deep he pitches roughly neutral. his pitch counts in recent starts93 pitches
- His manager's hook roughly neutral. how quickly this manager pulls his startersneutral
- Recent form pulls the number down. his recent velocity and two-strike whiffs against his own season norm
The full story is part of MAXOUT Advanced.
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